Free Agent Profile: Ryan Yarbrough, LHP
Ryan Yarbrough, LHP
Position: LHP B/T: R/L
Age: 33 (12/31/1991)
2024 Traditional Stats: 98.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5-2, 1 SV, 65 SO, 32 BB, 44 G
2024 Advanced Stats: 1.2 bWAR, -0.1 fWAR, 123 ERA+, 16.3 K%, 8.0 BB%, 4.16 xERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.84 xFIP
Rundown
Ryan Yarbrough was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in August and then traded to Toronto for Kevin Kiermaier after pitching to a 3.74 ERA over 67.1 innings in Los Angeles. He flourished with the Blue Jays, closing the year by turning in 31.1 innings of excellent performance (2.01 ERA, 0.79 WHIP).
He was, as he has been throughout his seven-year career, hell on left-handed batters, holding them to a .120/.176/.211/.387 slash line. (Righties posted a .749 OPS.) For his career, lefties have hit .208/.275/.341/.615 against him.
“Ryan Yarbrough took on so many different challenges this year, and what he did, how he went about it, I have so much respect for him alone,” Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia said in October. “You’re in the bullpen and you’re going to go long. There’s just a different level of maturity, respect, everything. To take the ball like he did, and what he did was crazy.”
Yarbrough didn’t make a start, but would often pitch the longest when the Dodgers or Blue Jays used an opener. He had eight outings of 3+ innings with Los Angeles and another five with Toronto. This was a role he also thrived in from 2018-2022 with Tampa Bay, the team that popularized the opener strategy.
“That’s so valuable to a team that, like, nobody understands,” Vesia said. “Obviously the big names, that’s great, but there are other guys that are like glue, that keep the team together and performing at a high level.”
Yarbrough has always been a pitch-to-contact guy, but in 2024 he took it to a new level, with his strikeout percentage dipping to a career-low 16.3. His best K% was 20.8 in 2019. His walk percentage also matched a career-high at 8.0. Both those figures were much better (22.2% and 6.0%) in his stint with the Blue Jays.
According to Baseball Savant, his average fastball velocity (86.5 mph) was in the bottom 1 percentile of MLB, but his average exit velocity (86 mph) was in the 97th percentile and his hard-hit percentage (29.4) was in the 99th percentile. He is an outlier.
Contract
Yarbrough played in 2024 on a $3.9 million contract. Spotrac.com projects Yarbrough to receive a one-year, $4.5 million contract.
Recommendation
The Mets need a lefty reliever, but Yarbrough is one the Mets should avoid. I don’t have confidence that his soft-tossing approach will work again. He was valuable in 2024 (his 98.2 innings pitched would have led all Mets relievers by far), but his ERA was 4.52 in 2023, 4.50 in 2022, and 5.11 in 2021.
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