Big 12 football: Texas Tech, Utah, Iowa State lead our 2025 preseason forecast

The Big 12 won’t publish a preseason media poll this summer and has good reason for abandoning the tradition. A conference defined by glorious mayhem should avoid providing fodder for its skeptics — not to mention the College Football Playoff selection committee — at all costs.

Allow the Hotline to fill the void, having learned the lessons taught in 2024.

Utah, projected to win the conference, finished 13th.

Oklahoma State, picked third, finished last.

Arizona State, slotted for last, won the whole shebang.

All in all, the difference between each team’s preseason poll position and its end-of-season finish was 7.3 spots, on average.

The Hotline fared slightly better with our 2024 forecast, which was published in August: We missed by an average of 6.8 places per team.

Armed with a season of observation to better understand the competitive dynamics in a conference devoid of traditional bluebloods, we are ready for another swing.

(Note: The projections below will be updated in late August based on developments in training camp.)

1. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders quietly finished one game behind the top group last season and have upgraded their talent with a loaded transfer class that ranks second nationally (behind LSU) in the 247Sports database. Add the return of quarterback Behren Morton, and a secondary program in the old Big 12 has a clear pathway to the title, courtesy of the NIL era.

2. Utah: We envision a highly motivated Kyle Whittingham, at the sunset of his career, conjuring one more season of brilliance. The Utes should have a more dynamic offense with quarterback Devon Dampier (from New Mexico), a punishing offensive line and their usually stout defense. If there’s a reversion to the mean with injuries, as well, a berth in the College Football Playoff could follow.

3. Iowa State: Few coaches in the country make better use of their personnel than the Cyclones’ Matt Campbell, whose roster isn’t stocked with blue chippers but looks plenty good enough to contend. Quarterback Rocco Becht enters his third year as the starter, but a return to the conference championship hinges on improving a run defense that ranked 110th nationally last season.

4. Arizona State: It would come as no surprise (none, zero, zip) if the Sun Devils repeat as Big 12 champions. After all, they have a plethora of key pieces returning and the best quarterback-receiver tandem in the conference (Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson). But success creates expectations, and expectations change everything — from locker-room dynamics to opponent motivation.

5. Kansas State: We are usually a bit reticent to suggest the fate of any season depends entirely on one player, but that certainly appears the case in Manhattan. If junior quarterback Avery Johnson elevates his game on a weekly basis — in particular, his play from the pocket — the Wildcats will be difficult to stop. They have everything else necessary to be the last team standing in December.

6. Baylor: The momentum is strong and the conference schedule is weak — at least, that’s how it appears currently. The Bears miss Iowa State and host ASU, Utah and Kansas State, leaving them with a lineup of road games that looks exceedingly manageable (Arizona, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and TCU). Consider Baylor the best bet to fill the role of Big 12 dark horse.

7. Oklahoma State: Perhaps the post-modern era of NIL and the transfer portal has left longtime OSU coach Mike Gundy behind. We suspect otherwise and expect the Cowboys to recover from their 2024 collapse. The reversal won’t be enough to catapult OSU into the thick of the race down the stretch but might be enough to cool off Gundy’s seat.

8. Brigham Young: The Cougars were our pick to win the conference until quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s off-the-field issues, which are expected to push him into the transfer portal and leave BYU with immense uncertainty at the position: The options are two transfers, Treyson Bourguet (Western Michigan) and McCae Hillstead (Utah State), and freshman Bear Bachmeier. The two-deep is solid enough to avoid a steep downturn, but contention now seems unlikely.

9. Kansas: The Jayhawks were unbeatable for three weeks last fall and decidedly subpar across the rest of the season. Which version shows up in 2025? We have no idea, which explains their position smack in the middle of these projections. The schedule is soft enough early to create momentum, but it turns tricky in the middle of October.

10. TCU: The return of quarterback Josh Hoover gives the Horned Frogs the opportunity to build on a quietly solid season (nine wins overall, six in conference play). But the schedule is treacherous, starting with the opener at North Carolina on Labor Day. Coach Sonny Dykes faced Deion Sanders in his Colorado debut two years ago. Now, Dykes gets Bill Belichick in his opener.

11. Arizona: The offseason has been an indisputable success for the Wildcats, who upgraded both their staff and roster. But will the improvements provide enough fuel for the bowl berth that second-year coach Brent Brennan might need to save his job? Perhaps. Are they enough to push the Wildcats into the top half of the Big 12 race? Only if quarterback Noah Fifita plays like it’s 2023 all over again … only without Tetairoa McMillan to make all the plays.

12. Colorado: Judgment awaits Deion Sanders, who enters his third season in Boulder but his first without Shedeur at quarterback and Travis Hunter on both sides of the field. If the Buffaloes struggle, the Sanders critics will be out in force. If they thrive, the Sanders sycophants will lead the charge. Our view: CU’s fate depends on the defense playing to the level it did last season.

13. Houston: If Baylor tops our list of potential Big 12 sleepers, Houston is a close second. Coach Willie Fritz’s sophomore season should lead to improved play on both sides of the ball. Although the Cougars’ position here suggests a bleak forecast, that’s partly because the Hotline doesn’t pick ties. Houston could very well finish in a four-team deadlock for ninth place, for example.

14. West Virginia: One of the most interesting spins of the coaching carousel ended with Rich Rodriguez back in Morgantown. The man can scheme with the best of ’em and will make the most of the talent available. It’s just that there isn’t nearly enough talent available for the Mountaineers to contend. That said, our forecast will be much brighter a year from now.

15. UCF: The circumstances are much different in 2025 than when Scott Frost’s first tenure in Orlando played out (to astounding success) nearly a decade ago. For one thing, the competition in the Big 12 is an order of magnitude more difficult than what he faced in the American. And within that space this season, the Knights’ road schedule stands as daunting.

16. Cincinnati: We considered a handful of teams for the cellar but settled on the Bearcats due to the dark clouds gathering on the horizon. Coach Scott Satterfield is a mere 4-14 in conference over two seasons. He needs veteran quarterback Brendan Sorsby to take his play to the next level, or a change could be coming.

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