“Is it just me?”: What’s going on with our weather apps, and is it tied to DOGE cuts?
As people head off to sunny destinations for their summer vacation, some travelers are reporting that the weather forecasts that once helped them plan their travels aren’t as accurate as they used to be.
On its surface, this may sound like a conspiracy theory. However, internet users swear up and down that it’s true, claiming that, while weather apps used to be reasonably reliable, they now cannot even predict simple things like rain or cloud cover.
For example, in a TikTok video from user Kenny (@kennyseesnewshiz), she declares, “The weather app? Not working anymore.”
@kennyseesnewshiz this administration sucks & ruining literally every thing that made life a little bit mroe tolerable, like accurate weather forecasts???? these are the thoughts my private snap usually gets to see but now bringing them here???????? #weatherchannel #unreliable #summerweather #jerseyshore #trumpadministration #losers ♬ original sound - kenny❤️???? | life & travel
“Was supposed to be cloudy today,” Kenny says. “It's raining. No rain on the weather app radar, though. And then, when is it supposed to rain? There's no rain. It's just sun.”
Another TikToker, Julie (@juliesaladinoo), simply put out a request for reliable weather apps, saying that every weather app they’ve used has been “trash” recently.
So, is it true that weather apps are getting worse?
Weather balloons and reporting
As this topic started to gain traction online, some users were quick to come forward with theories about why weather apps are getting worse, and who is to blame.
For example, noting the same reliability problem as the previous two TikTokers, user Megan (@meganjogoes) said that the true reason that weather predictions have been poor recently is not the apps themselves, but cuts that have been made to government programs that supply the data for these apps.
Citing a comment she read from a meteorologist, Megan states, “there's not as many balloon tracking things up in the air, so that's why all of our apps are not accurate anymore.”
“And you're not crazy! They're not accurate anymore! That's really scary, because what happens during a weather event?” she shares. “Oh, wait, we know what happens during a big weather event. Yikes! Yikes!” Here, the TikToker is likely referencing the recent floods in Texas, which is currently subject to a debate regarding the accuracy of forecasts surrounding the weather event.
DOGE cuts predicted to affect weather prediction
As noted by the Associated Press, prior to the second Trump Administration, the National Weather Service (NWS) would launch weather balloons twice per day from around 80 locations in the United States.
These balloons collect atmospheric data, which allows forecasters and computer models to predict weather and assess its potential dangers. They do this by carrying “radiosondes” that measure key conditions like temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind up to 100,000 feet in the atmosphere.
However, thanks to cuts made to the NWS under DOGE, the number of weather balloons gathering this critical information has been reduced. Launches were eliminated in some areas due to lack of Weather Forecast Office (WFO) staffing, and in other areas, the twice-daily launches were reduced to once per day.
At the time, experts predicted that this would make it more difficult for experts to study the weather. Crucially, that weather prediction would become more difficult without the information collected by these balloons.
The current state of weather forecasting is unclear
In the months following the announcement of DOGE cuts — and the Trump Administration's declaration that they wish to cut the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the main US science agency that studies weather and climate, by almost 30 percent — scientists continued to warn that weather prediction was going to reach a point that it was no longer reliable.
On the surface, this makes sense. As Jason Furtado, associate professor of meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, told TIME Magazine, “With less data going in, that also means less reliable, less accurate forecasts coming out of our models, which then impacts the forecast accuracy that we can have over the next day, two days, five days, etc..”
However, it’s presently unclear if that’s what’s causing social media users to perceive their weather reporting apps as being less accurate than they used to be.
In short, the reliability of weather prediction has long varied considerably across the country. A 2024 Washington Post article notes that Americans in the Southwest can expect accurate forecasts 5 to 6 days out. In contrast, Americans living in the Great Plains region should only expect accurate forecasts one or two days out. If one travels from one area to the other, they may believe that forecasting in general has gotten worse.
Social media weighs in
Next, social media complaints about the poor quality of weather apps actually long predates the Trump Administration. It is not unique to the United States.
Reddit posts from around the world lament the apparently “worsening” state of weather forecasting, from northern Virginia to Ontario, Canada to Sydney, Australia. This is despite the fact that, as noted by The Atlantic in 2023, weather forecasting apps are, overall, better than they’ve ever been.
Plus, as weather reporting tools incorporate Artificial Intelligence, some predict that the quality of weather reporting will not be as impacted by the Trump cuts as others may believe.
Writing for the Financial Times, authors Clive Cookson and Michael Peel explain that some researchers believe that, while cuts will be damaging, future AI models could boost accuracy by integrating large amounts of data from local weather sensors — like thermometers and rain gauges — that are currently excluded from global forecasting systems.
The future of weather reporting
Experts still worry that the reduction in weather balloons could hurt future weather reporting. Additionally, the proposal of future cuts to relevant agencies means that weather forecasting could get worse, which has the potential to put people in danger in the case of extreme weather events.
However, it cannot be definitively stated that these cuts are what’s causing people to believe that their weather apps are getting worse — or that weather forecasting apps are getting worse at all. In fact, there’s more evidence to say that these apps are more accurate than they were even just a few years ago. Whether that will stay the case remains to be seen.
We’ve reached out to Kenny and Julie via email, and Megan via Instagram DM.
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