Good rains again this year! . .Return of La Niña conditions bring glad tidings to Southern Africa

Theseus Shambare, Harare Bureau

WEATHER experts are forecasting a possible return of La Niña conditions later this year — a development that could bring another season of above-average rainfall across Southern Africa.

This would mark the second consecutive year of La Niña, potentially providing a fresh boost to Zimbabwe’s agriculture and energy sector.

The country currently relies mainly on rain-fed agriculture, while power supplies from the Kariba Hydropower Station are integral to energy security.

Good rains in the 2024/2025 summer cropping season — also linked to La Niña — helped the country achieve a bumper harvest, with maize and traditional grain production exceeding national requirements.

The economy is projected to grow by 6 percent this year on the back of a better-than-expected harvest.
La Niña is a natural phenomenon that tends to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to Southern Africa.

It is the opposite of El Niño, which often leads to hotter and drier weather, increasing the risk of drought.
Both are part of a larger climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which explains how changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures influence weather patterns around the world.

Currently, the world is in what scientists call an “ENSO-neutral” phase, meaning sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are near average, with no clear signs of either El Niño or La Niña.

According to the United States-based Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), these neutral conditions are expected to persist until at least October.

“Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter of 2025-26, but remain nearly equal to ENSO-neutral,” the CPC said in its latest update.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency, however, estimates a 40 percent chance of La Niña forming between September and November, while the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) puts the likelihood at 35 percent.
Importantly, no forecast agency currently sees El Niño returning in the near future.

If La Niña does emerge, Zimbabwe could be in for a second consecutive summer of favourable rainfall, bringing renewed optimism for another successful grain production season.

However, local experts caution that it is too early to make firm predictions.
In an interview with our sister paper, The Sunday Mail, head of forecasting at the Meteorological Services

Department (MSD) Mr James Ngoma said the situation is fluid and changes monthly.
“The development of these weather patterns is a month-by-month process and changes constantly,” he said.

“Our forecast will become clearer by August and beyond.”
Mr Ngoma encouraged farmers to remain in regular contact with agricultural extension officers and to follow localised forecasts closely.

“Each La Niña event affects Zimbabwe differently — some bring good rains, others favour certain areas more than others.

“That is why we urge farmers to stay in touch with Agritex officers and local weather updates.”
Rainfall forecasts, he said, are based on multiple global and regional indicators.

“There are many other factors that influence our weather — like the Indian Ocean Dipole and the winds over the Indian Ocean,” he said.

“So, we issue impact-based forecasts, which help farmers not just know what the weather is, but also what they should do in response.”

Ahead of commencement of preparations for the 2025/2026 cropping season, the MSD is advising farmers to plan with flexibility and be prepared for varying outcomes.

“Be prepared for all possible outcomes,” said Mr Ngoma.
The next climate update from the MSD is expected in August and will offer more precise guidance ahead of the critical planting window.

Last season’s La Niña-linked rainfall helped Zimbabwe achieve an estimated 2,29 million tonnes of maize, well above the annual requirement of 2,2 million tonnes and around 634 000 tonnes of traditional grains.

This has not only strengthened national food security but also allowed the country to build strategic reserves and stabilise prices.

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