Poll Position: Mamdani's the frontrunner, but isn't running away with NYC mayoral race just yet

The winner of the New York City Democratic primary for mayor is traditionally considered the overwhelming frontrunner in the general election.

That's because Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly six-to-one in the nation's most populous city.

However, that's not the case this year, one month after democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old Ugandan-born, state assemblyman from Queens, stunned the political world by topping former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and nine other candidates in a come-from-behind primary victory to capture the nomination.

President Donald Trump believes that Cuomo, who last week officially announced he would continue his mayoral bid as an independent candidate, has a solid chance of defeating Mamdani, whom the president has repeatedly claimed is a "communist."

"I would think that he would have a good shot at winning," the president told reporters at the White House last week, a day after Cuomo's announcement.

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A handful of polls conducted this month in New York City suggest that Mamdani is the frontrunner, but that he is far from running away with the race. The surveys indicate Mamdani ahead of Cuomo anywhere from around 15 points to as few as three points.

Trailing Mamdani and Cuomo in the surveys are Mayor Eric Adams, the embattled incumbent who announced earlier this year that he would seek re-election as an independent candidate, and Guardian Angels co-founder Curtis Sliwa, who for a second straight election is the Republican mayoral nominee.

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Also on the ballot in the general election is Jim Walden, a former federal prosecutor running as an independent.

Walden has proposed that an independent survey be conducted in September to determine which candidate would have the best shot of defeating Mamdani, with the other candidates agreeing to drop out.

Cuomo has embraced the idea, with Adams and Sliwa not signing on board.

Having the former governor, who resigned in 2021 amid multiple scandals, and Adams, who has faced a slew of controversies since winning election as mayor four years ago, both agreeing that such a scenario seems remote, both have urged the other to exit the race.

"We have to put our political ambitions in the backseat to the interests of New Yorkers," Walden said this past weekend in an interview with Fox News' Bryan Llenas.

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He charged that the other candidates "right now, they're putting their own political ambitions above New Yorkers."

Since his Democratic Party nomination victory, some of the unions and elected officials that supported Cuomo in the primary are now backing Mamdani.

Mamdani, who was backed by progressive champions Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, surged to a primary victory thanks to an energetic campaign that put a major focus on affordability and New York City's high cost of living.

Mamdani made smart use of social media platforms, including TikTok, as he engaged low-propensity voters. He proposed eliminating fares to ride New York City's vast bus system, making CUNY (City University of New York) "tuition-free," freezing rents on municipal housing, offering "free childcare" for children up to age 5 and setting up government-run grocery stores.

Republicans have targeted Mamdani and tried to turn him into the new face of the Democratic Party. They aim to anchor him to vulnerable Democrats across the country running in elections this year and next year.

Republicans have spotlighted recent news items regarding Mamdani that have gone viral. They include a 2020 photo Mamdani posted online that shows him flipping off a statue of Christopher Columbus, stories about comments Mamdani made last December when he said as mayor he would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his recent comments in a cable news interview that "I have many critiques of capitalism."

"I don’t think that race is over yet. We do have a couple of people running. There are things coming out about him," Trump said last week, as he referred to Mamdani.