Towards greater integration: Prospects for the development of agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP countries

by Joanna Łukasiewicz, Bartłomiej Bajan, Karolina Pawlak

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the largest free trade agreement in the world, making it a potentially attractive trading partner for the European Union (EU). This paper aims to fill a research gap by examining agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP, with a focus on uncovering opportunities for sectoral cooperation and identifying competitive dynamics. It employs trade structure similarity and intra-industry trade analysis, including horizontal and vertical trade flows. Using the Export Similarity Index (ESI) and Product Similarity Index (PSI), the findings indicate stable, moderate competition in agri-food trade between the EU and RCEP, with similarity indices ranging from 0.32 to 0.35. While intra-industry trade remains limited due to geographic distance, there is notable potential for expanding high-quality EU agri-food exports. The results suggest that targeted trade policies could enhance cooperation by leveraging the EU’s export strengths to meet RCEP demand. The study provides a strategic framework for future negotiations, emphasizing sectoral approaches to optimize trade outcomes and maximize trade benefits between the EU and RCEP countries.