What are the strategy options for the Belgian Grand Prix?

Pirelli’s tire curveball, and potential rain, make the Belgian Grand Prix a voyage into the unknown

McLaren put in a strong effort in qualifying for the Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix, as Lando Norris captured pole position and teammate Oscar Piastri will start alongside him on the front row.

But the job is not done, and with Pirelli throwing the grid a curveball not seen since 2022, the Belgian Grand Prix may be a voyage into the unknown.

Let’s dive into the strategy options for the Belgian Grand Prix.

What happened in the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix?

To borrow a phrase, answering that question requires a two-stop approach.

The three podium finishers in the final classification — Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, and Charles Leclerc — all used a two-stop strategy, beginning on the medium tires and then switching to hards, and hards again. For example, Hamilton pitted on Lap 11 to switch to a set of hard tires, and then again on Lap 26 for a fresh set of hards, going the rest of the way in this 44-lap race.

But Hamilton crossed the line second, behind teammate George Russell, who made a daring decision, trying a one-stop strategy. Russell started P6 on a set of medium tires, pitted on Lap 10 for a set of hards, and went the distance, holding off Hamilton down the stretch on worn hard tires for the win.

However, Russell was disqualified as his car failed to make the minimum weight, and that strategy may have played a role in that disqualification. At over seven kilometers long, Spa is the longest track on the current F1 schedule. As a result, when drivers take the checkered flag, they quickly pull off the racing line and stop, rather than make the traditional cooldown lap around the circuit.

That prevented Russell from picking up extra rubber on that lap, and he came in 1.5 kilograms under the required minimum weight.

That disqualification dropped Russell from P1, and saw his teammate promoted to the win.

However, Russell was not the only driver who finished in the Top 10 to pull off a one-stop strategy. Fernando Alonso started on a set of mediums, stopped on Lap 13 for a set of hards, and went the distance to finish ninth. He was promoted to P8 with Russell’s disqualification.

Pirelli’s curveball: What are the tire options for the teams?

Last year, Pirelli designed the C2 as the hard tire, with the C3 as the medium, and the C4 as the soft.

Now here comes their curveball.

The C3 and the C4 are back for 2025, but Pirelli has gone one step harder at the other end of the range. This year, the hard compound is the C1, making it the first time since the 2022 Australian Grand Prix that Pirelli has offered non-consecutive tire options for the teams and drivers.

According to Pirelli, the reason behind these choices was that “this trio should make a two-stop strategy even more competitive.”

Will that be the case on Sunday?

What are the tire strategies for the Belgian Grand Prix?

According to Pirelli, the two-stop strategy should still be the preferred approach.

But only slightly.

“If it’s a dry race with track temperatures significantly lower than today’s or yesterday’s, the Soft and Medium compounds will be the most competitive,” said Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, in their post-qualifying report. “As there is not that big a difference between a one-stop and a two-stop, any combination of Soft and Medium is possible. That doesn’t mean the decision to bring a very hard Hard here was a mistake: if we had kept the same trio as last year, the one-stop would have been significantly quicker.

“One must also bear in mind that overtaking at this track is not that easy, as could be seen in all today’s Sprint races, in F1, F2 and F3, when trains of cars were formed despite or indeed because of the DRS. This means that the start, and especially the first sector on the opening lap, should make the difference and slipstreaming could play an important role.”

According to Pirelli’s simulations, a two-stop approach with a stint on the soft tires, coupled with two stints on the mediums, is the fastest way to the checkered flag.

But only slightly. A one-stop could still be on offer for drivers, whether starting on the soft tires and running until between Lap 16 and Lap 22, and then switching to mediums, or starting on the mediums, running until between Lap 17 and 23, and then switching to hards:

“In our calculations, the two-stop soft-medium-medium is quicker than the one-stop soft-medium … but by just a few seconds,” added Isola. “Tomorrow [Sunday] with lower temperatures and, because of those temperatures, degradation that can be more easily managed, soft-medium could be an option. It will need quite a high level of management … but it is possible.”

As you can see here in this graphic from F1, the cars that have fresh soft tires are generally in the bottom half of the field, starting with the Haas pairing of Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman in P11 and P12, respectively:

Those teams with fresh soft tires might start out on those, or even save them should the skies open up.

Because we have one more potential curveball to discuss.

What about the weather for the Belgian Grand Prix?

Yes, here is the final curveball.

It might be a wet Belgian Grand Prix.

According to the latest forecasts, Sunday will start out rainy, with a 92% chance of rain at 9:00 a.m. local time. That slowly decreases throughout the day but remains at 72% in the 3:00 p.m. hour local time, when the race begins.

That could mean even more unknowns as the Belgian Grand Prix begins.

“As for strategy, the first thing to take into consideration is that the forecast is for a high chance of rain. Therefore the hypothetical scenarios are many, in every sense of the word,” added Isola in Pirelli’s Saturday report.

“If the race starts in the dry, but with the threat of rain, one can easily imagine the Medium would be the favourite compound so as to have greater flexibility in managing the moment to switch to rain tires or to extend the first stint as much as possible.”