Buy? Sell? The SF Giants’ case for both scenarios

SAN FRANCISCO — All signs point to the Giants being buyers ahead of the trade deadline.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey already swung the biggest trade of the year by acquiring Rafael Devers from the Boston Red Sox, the textbook definition of a win-now move. Even after losing 10 of their last 12 games, they’re only four games back of the NL Wild Card spot. If the Giants make trades between now and 3 p.m. PST on Thursday, they will likely feature incoming talent.

“Buster’s made it clear,” Chapman said. “We go out and get Rafi, it makes sense to continue to try to improve this team for this year and the foreseeable future. I think we expect to add and to continue to get better and continue to make a push to make the playoffs.”

Given the Devers trade and given the standings, there are few scenarios where the Giants decide to become sellers. While it’s very unlikely they do so, there’s an argument to be made for the team taking this approach. What would it look like if they went this route? And what would it mean for next season?

Here are the cases for the Giants buying — and selling — ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline:

The case for buying

The acquisition of Devers in June a clear-cut sign that Posey is in the business of winning now. The same can be said of Chapman’s extension and the signing of Willy Adames.

As poorly as San Francisco has played in recent weeks, the goal of playing October baseball is within reach. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 19.8% chance of making the postseason, but the team could catapult itself back into contention with a few hot weeks. Reinforcements, though, are needed.

The team’s most pressing need is starting pitching. Landen Roupp is injured; Hayden Birdsong was optioned; Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are struggling; and Justin Verlander has been inconsistent.

The Giants have said that Roupp’s injury is minor and he may only miss two or three starts, but the past week has reinforced the need for San Francisco to add to the rotation. On Sunday, the team used its first planned bullpen game of the season. On Monday, top pitching prospect Carson Whisenhunt allowed four runs over five innings in his major-league debut.

Manager Bob Melvin said Whisenhunt could earn staying power in the starting rotation if he performs well. Even if Whisenhunt puts together several good starts, relying on a rookie during a stretch drive is an inherently risky proposition.

The Giants don’t necessarily need a frontline starter with Webb and Ray in the mix. But a middle-of-the-rotation starter would be a boon for a team that can no longer call upon Kyle Harrison or Jordan Hicks.

The Royals’ Seth Lugo recently signed an extension and the Tigers acquired Chris Paddack from the Twins, but the list of mid-teir starters who might be on the move include Jose Quintana, Nestor Cortes, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Adrian Houser and Aaron Civale, among others. The Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly could both be traded as well, but Arizona might have reservations trading within the division.

There’s also the matter of the offense, which continues to be subpar even with Devers in the mix. Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman are all starting to heat up offensively, but the Giants’ quiet series against the New York Mets — five runs, 0-for-23 with runners in scoring position — signals that this lineup needs more depth.

The case for selling

In the same way that the Giants are several good weeks away from moving up in the standings, they are also several bad weeks away from falling out of contention entirely.

Their 13-22 record since acquiring Devers is the worst in baseball, and they continue to lose ground in the Wild Card race. A starter and a bat just may not be enough.

If the Giants were to sell, it would be done with the intention of putting themselves in a better position for next season. The core would remain in place, but the team could improve its financial flexibility ahead of the offseason by trading upcoming free agents or arbitration-eligible players. Adames, Chapman and Devers, after all, weren’t cheap.

The list of players who are on track to become free agents this offseason includes Verlander; reliever Tyler Rogers; outfielder Mike Yastrzemski; and first basemen Wilmer Flores and Dominic Smith. Those players aren’t on the books for 2026, but trading any of those players ahead of the deadline would allow the Giants to avoid paying those salaries for the rest of the year.

Along with the upcoming free agents, reliever Camilo Doval has two years of arbitration remaining and will receive a raise on the $4.525 million he’s making this season.

Doval likely has no shortage of interest after bouncing back from the worst season of his career, and the one-time All-Star could feasibly net a solid return. Trading Doval wouldn’t just give the Giants more room financially, but it would open the door for All-Star Randy Rodríguez to step into the closer role.

In this hypothetical scenario, the Giants could dedicate the rest of their season to seeing what they have with their young players. Can top pitching prospect Carson Whisenhunt provide quality innings every five days?  Could top prospect Bryce Eldridge earn a cup of coffee? Can Marco Luciano and Grant McCray produce?

This scenario, again, is unlikely. The Giants, flaws and all, are built to win now. Posey has already pulled off his first blockbuster and acquired a foundational piece, but the coming days will determine whether he can sufficiently add around the margins.