'Shortest honeymoon ever': Expert warns TX gamble already backfiring as Latinos flee GOP
Texas Republicans are banking on recent gains with Latino voters by redrawing their congressional maps to create four majority-Hispanic districts that seemingly favors GOP candidates.
The state GOP issued redrawn maps in an unusual mid-decade redistricting move at the urging of President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, and the move copies a strategy Republicans are carrying out across the county after Latino voters shifted toward Trump last year.
But recent polling shows many voters — including in the demographic — aren't happy about many of his policies, reported Politico.
“Trump had the shortest honeymoon ever with these voters,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who published a book last year on Latino voters. “It lasted a couple of months, but the day he started talking about tariffs and started rattling financial markets and everything that Latinos were voting for him on, which was overwhelming affordability and economic issues, they moved away from him just as rapidly as they moved away from Joe Biden for the exact same reasons.”
Trump gained 12 points in support from Hispanic voters in 2024, when he grabbed 48 percent of their votes, to 2020, when he won only 36 percent support, and he outperformed other Republicans among those voters across Texas last year.
“[Republicans] are confusing the gains that Trump the individual made with support for the Republican Party,” said Matt Barreto, who polled Latino voters for the Biden-Harris campaign. “There is a Trump effect that is not transferable to Republicans.”
Trump is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third term in 2028, and Republicans may not enjoy the same type of boost in turnout they've gotten in the past from having his name at the top of the ballot.
“In Texas in particular, Hispanic voters are more loyal to their paychecks and Texas than they are to a party,” said Dan Sena, a former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That’s part of the appeal of Trump. But when he’s not on the ticket, some of that support erodes.”
While the newly proposed districts appear to favor Republicans on paper, with GOP support among Hispanic voters steadily increasing since 2018, their redistricting strategy isn't a sure bet.
“Everything we know about Latino voters tells us that they are highly persuadable and have in the last few election cycles made decisions based on who they believe will address their economic concerns and priorities,” said Melissa Morales, president of Democratic-aligned group Somos Votantes.