Dow futures reverse higher as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economy
- U.S. stocks were poised for gains as futures on Sunday evening signaled a rebound after investors digested jobs data that upended their notions of what previously looked like a more resilient economy. Some analysts on Wall Street are warning that the U.S. is now on the brink of recession.
Markets were pointing toward a rebound Sunday evening after startling jobs data delivered a rude awakening to Wall Street bulls.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed higher, rising 114 points, or 0.26%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.38%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed 3.3 basis points to 4.253% after plunging Friday on greater expectations for Fed rate cuts. The U.S. dollar was down 0.09% against the euro and down 0.29% against the yen.
Gold rose 0.17% to $3,405.70 per ounce. U.S. oil prices dropped 0.15% to $67.23 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 0.2% to $69.53, as OPEC+ announced another surge in production.
After investors marveled at how resilient the economy appeared in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, it turns out conditions were actually much weaker, with job gains over the last three months averaging just 35,000.
Combined with separate indicators showing deterioration in consumer spending, housing, and manufacturing, the overall picture is one of an economy “on the precipice of recession,” according to Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics. That followed a similar warning from economists at JPMorgan.
Analysts have also raised concerns about the potential politicization of data after Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, who headed the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Others had previously sounded the alarm on glaring red flags in the economy. But in the days leading up to the jobs report, some top commentators were still trying to explain why doomsday predictions about Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs had yet to materialize.
On Thursday, former White House economic adviser Jason Furman attributed it in part to “tariff derangement syndrome.” And last Sunday, Rockefeller International Chair Ruchir Sharma said the negative effects of tariffs were likely being offset by other factors like the AI spending splurge and lower inflationary pressure from housing, cars and energy.
With Wall Street now more attuned to economic risks like Trump’s trade war, the tariffs that will go into effect on Thursday may get more scrutiny. That includes steeper duties on trading partners like Canada and Switzerland.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that tariff rates are “pretty much set” and are unlikely to change in the coming days, though Trump had pushed back the last deadline to Aug. 7 from Aug. 1, which was also a delay from another deadline on July 9.
Meanwhile, the calendar of economic reports thins out in the coming week after several big ones last week. On Tuesday, the trade deficit for June comes out, providing an update on how much tariffs are impacting imports. On Thursday, second-quarter productivity is due.
Earnings season has passed its peak, but several top names will issue quarterly reports. Palantir Technologies reports Monday after securing a $10 billion software and data contract from the Army.
Chip giant Advanced Micro Devices will report on Tuesday—potentially offering hints at Nvidia’s results, which don’t come out until Aug. 27.
Other companies scheduled to release earnings in the coming week include Caterpillar, Disney, and McDonald’s. It will also be a busy time for pharmaceutical and biotech giants like Amgen, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly as Trump weighs steep tariffs on drugs.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com