DOUG SCHOEN: Why AOC could take the White House in 2028 and Kamala Harris won't
When former Vice President Kamala Harris announced that she would not be running for California governor, she appeared to leave the door open to another shot at the White House in 2028.
However, the real Democratic contender to watch is not Harris.
Rather – implausible as it may seem to some – New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appears to be the front-runner for Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination, should she forgo a Senate campaign, which she would almost certainly win.
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Put another way, right now, Kamala Harris will likely not be president in 2028, but AOC could very well be the Democratic nominee, with a shot at the White House.
I say this for multiple reasons.
First, it could be argued that AOC is even stronger than other presidential candidates at this moment in their careers or respective races.
At this point in the 2008 election cycle – coinciding with the summer of 2005 – Barack Obama was not even considered enough of a serious candidate to be included in polls.
Likewise, in the 2020 primary – which Harris was forced to withdraw from before a single vote was even cast – Harris’ highwater mark in polling two years out was 7% in an Axios poll.
That was good for 5th place, trailing former President Biden by 15-points, and even Oprah Winfrey by 9-points.
Conversely, Ocasio-Cortez is already a top finisher in 2028 Democratic primary polls.
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Per Race to the White House polling aggregator, AOC (10%) ranks 3rd, behind former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Gavin Newsom (13% each) – a virtual tie – when Harris is not included.
And when polls with Harris are included, the former VP (21%) is well below even a 30% barrier, having seen her support drop 14-points since January, whereas AOC’s has risen by 9-points.
Still, in individual polls where Harris and AOC are tested together, AOC held a four-point lead over the former VP (19% to 15%), according to AtlasIntel polling.
Similarly, political betting sites such as Polymarket show Ocasio-Cortez with the 2nd best odds, trailing Newsom by just four points (20% to 16%). Harris is in 5th with just 6%.
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Additionally, AOC’s favorability (46%) ranks higher than President Trump (44%), as well as Vice President JD Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris (42% each), per AtlasIntel.
There also may be reason to believe that AOC could do as well in a general election as Newsom or Buttigieg.
In a series of hypothetical 2028 matchups pitting Vance against top Democrats, Vance’s three-point lead over AOC (44% to 41%) is virtually identical to his lead over Newsom (45% to 42%) and over Pete Buttigieg (44% to 43%), per Emerson.
Notably, Harris was not even tested in the Emerson poll.
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Behind Ocasio-Cortez’s strong polling numbers are her dominant fundraising and convening abilities, especially her ability to generate enthusiasm.
Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that AOC raised more than $15 million in 2025 – almost double Speaker Mike Johnson, with 99% coming from small dollar donors.
To Harris’ credit, the former VP raised a historic amount of money during the 2024 campaign, but having failed at generating enthusiasm, donor fatigue is already evident.
Even prior to Harris’ recent announcement, reports had mentioned the "lack of enthusiasm" among big donors for a second presidential bid – an ominous sign before a candidacy is even announced.
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On the other hand, Ocasio-Cortez is currently among the strongest – if not the strongest –drawer of crowds of any Democrat, reflecting her ability to generate levels of enthusiasm Harris simply could not.
AOC’s nationwide rallies with fellow progressive Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, have drawn tens of thousands of voters, including more than 30,000 in Los Angeles and Denver.
Moreover, AOC has drawn considerably larger crowds even in traditionally Republican areas. In Idaho and Montana, 12,500 and 9,000 people, respectively, filled stadiums to hear the New York representative.
AOC is also drawing these crowds in a year when there are no elections, an impressive feat.
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To be sure, there are legitimate doubts as to whether or not Ocasio-Cortez would be a viable candidate. She will turn 39 years old just weeks before the 2028 election, and her far-left ideology may be less attractive in a general election.
And yet, in terms of winning a Democratic primary, history and current polling suggest that AOC may well be a formidable candidate for whichever position she chooses.
Candidates without high national profiles have frequently emerged from Democratic primaries, including George McGovern, as well as former Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
Further, concerns that AOC is too far to the political left may actually help her in a primary where the electorate tends to be dominated by the left. Not to mention that a considerable number of moderate Democrats will likely rally around the eventual nominee, regardless of who wins.
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On the contrary, Harris struggled with voters both on the left and in the middle and has shown no reason to believe a 2028 run would address those problems.
One way for AOC to mitigate age and electability concerns would be to challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in the upcoming midterms, a race AOC would likely win.
A poll conducted earlier this spring showed AOC leading Schumer by almost 20-points (55% to 36%), and Democrats would likely be encouraged by the idea of having a younger candidate than the 74-year-old incumbent.
Ultimately, whether or not Ocasio-Cortez can sustain this momentum remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, right now, the path to the Democratic presidential nomination is significantly more open to AOC than other candidates, particularly Kamala Harris.