Series Preview: Mets Look to Straighten Things Out Against Guardians

Baseball is a roller coaster, and the Mets are firmly planted on the ride.

After a seven-game winning streak, New York has dropped two straight series to the Giants and Padres. They are still firmly in a playoff spot, but have seen the gap start to close as more teams in the National League play better down the stretch. The team’s stars in the lineup have struggled, the starting pitching has been shaky, and the bullpen has given up some runs in key spots. The sky is not falling, but it is a bit closer than it was a few weeks ago.

However, the Mets are in a position to rebound in a big way against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has had some solid pitching, but their lineup has struggled significantly. They are a very average team, but are still alive in the AL Wild Card race at this point in the season. They pose a threat to the Mets, but also have some weak points that New York could easily exploit.

We are deep into the summer, and the playoff races are about to heat up. It is time for another Metsmerized series preview, so let us dive into it!

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.08 ERA) vs. Slade Cecconi (5–4, 3.77 ERA)

• In their first game against the Guardians, the Mets will send Sean Manaea to the mound. As has been the case many times for him in a Mets uniform, the lefty stifled the opposition and only allowed one run over five innings in his last start. Manaea is striking out batters consistently, is peppering the strike zone, is avoiding barrels, and is limiting hard contact. Against a very weak Guardians lineup, the “Tribal Chief” should be able to have yet another very strong outing. 
• As for Cleveland, they will send out Slade Cecconi to start off the series. This year, the righty has a 3.77 ERA, 63 strikeouts, and holds a 5-4 record. He has done a very good job of limiting walks (7.0%), has been average in generating ground balls (41.2%), and slightly below average in striking out batters (20.0%). Cecconi, however, is allowing very hard contact and a high barrel rate. If the Mets jump on him early, they have a very good shot at doing some damage to start off the series. 

Tuesday: Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45 ERA) vs. Logan Allen (7–9, 4.06 ERA)

• New York, in the second game of the series, will send out the struggling Clay Holmes. While his overall season numbers are still solid, the former reliever has given up five or more hits in all five of his last starts. From those selected outings, Holmes has given up two or more runs in four of the games, while also only striking out more than three batters in one of those starts. In exchange for location, Holmes has seemingly become more hittable, as his strikeout rate and velocity have dipped to supplement the walk rate. Holmes is not at his best with below-average stuff, and the combination of more control and a new high in innings has likely put a strain on him. It’s hard to know what to expect on Tuesday, but the Mets will likely need to use the start as a gauge to determine the rest of 2025 for Holmes. 
• As of the writing of this article, the Guardians will send lefty Logan Allen to the hill. Allen, while not allowing hard contact, has an expected ERA of 4.49 and is not missing many bats, holding a whiff percentage of 19.8 and a 17.5% strikeout rate. Add in a midlevel walk rate, and the Mets could find success in this game. But if their struggles against lefties persist, Allen could easily turn this game over to the bullpen for the Guardians. 

Wednesday: David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.33 ERA) 

• David Peterson is a bulldog. He is almost always guaranteed to go six innings, strike out at least four batters, and limit the opposition to two runs or less. He has great command, keeps the ball on the ground, and has multiple above-average pitches. I expect Peterson to carve up the Guardians and put the Mets in a great position to win the game.
• The Guardians’ best pitcher takes the mound in the series finale. Gavin Williams, in 22 games this season, holds a 6-4 record and a 3.33 ERA. He throws absolute gas(average fastball velocity of 96.5), is generating whiffs at a 28.1% clip, has an impressive 45.0% ground ball rate, and is generating impressive extension. However, Williams has struggled with the walks and has had middle-of-the-road barrel and hard-hit rates. New York is in for a battle in this game, but if they take better at-bats and force Williams to work, they will have a good shot in this one.

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, and beyond, I am focused on the timer for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas in the rotation.

Both Montas and Holmes, in their own way, have struggled badly as of late. They have both imploded on the mound and limited New York’s ability to win games, putting the lineup in an immediate hole and forcing them to play from behind. And, as a result, have the standout young pitching tandem of Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat ready to step up.

One of Holmes’s last shots, if not his overall last shot, will likely be on Tuesday. Another implosion will likely mean an immediate trip back to the bullpen and hopefully help get the righty ready for a relief role in the playoffs. If he thrives, the former Yankee and Pirate will likely have another chance to make another start.

Montas is a bit trickier, especially after Sunday’s game. It is very likely that his role is gone, and the Mets are just waiting to formally announce which of the two pitchers is taking his spot. However, it is also possible that New York tries to sneak one more start out of Montas, banking that he can miss enough bats to get through five or six innings.

Regardless of the outcome, the choice for the headline is clear. Two of the Mets’ starters have not been good enough, and two upper-level pitching prospects are banging on the door of the majors. For that reason, this is my main headline of the week.

Prediction

In their series against the Guardians, I see the Mets sweeping the series. Francisco Lindor will hit two home runs in the series against his former team, while Juan Soto will have three extra-base hits. Mark Vientos will have three hits in the series, and Ryan Helsley will get his first save as a Met. Additionally, I predict the Mets calling up Brandon Sproat to the major league roster.

After this series, I have the Mets at 66-49 heading into a big series with the Milwaukee Brewers.

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