Israel is weighing its options in Gaza. Here are 4 scenarios for where things may be heading
Israel has routed its enemies across the region but has yet to return all its hostages from the Gaza Strip. Hamas appears to have been decimated militarily but has kept up insurgent attacks. Gaza is in ruins and experts say it is sliding into famine, and long-running ceasefire talks seem to have broken down.
So where do we go from here?
Both Israel and Hamas have embraced visions for how the war should end, but mediators from two American administrations, Egypt and Qatar have yet to bridge the gaps. There are at least two other scenarios in which the war goes on indefinitely, at an unimaginable cost to Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians, the Israeli hostages and their families.
Here’s a closer look.
Full reoccupation of Gaza
For days now, Israeli media have reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the verge of ordering the full reoccupation of Gaza for the first time since Israel withdrew soldiers and settlers two decades ago. He is expected to meet with his security Cabinet late Thursday, possibly to make a decision.
That would mean sending ground troops into the few areas of Gaza that haven’t been totally destroyed, the roughly 25% of the territory where much of its 2 million people have sought refuge, including the sprawling coastal displacement camps of Muwasi.
It would lead to countless more Palestinian deaths and more mass displacement, and it could put the roughly 20 remaining living hostages at serious risk. It would also leave Israel in full control of the territory, obliged by international law to provide security and ensure the basic needs of the population are met.
Reoccupation would spark outrage internationally and further isolate Israel and the U.S. There is also opposition within Israel, from those who fear for the hostages and former security chiefs who have warned of a quagmire.
But it has strong support among Netanyahu’s far-right governing partners, who have long called for the reconquest of Gaza, the relocation of much of its population to other countries, and the rebuilding of Jewish settlements.
A ceasefire in line with international demands
Hamas has said it will release all the remaining hostages in return for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
Those demands were adopted by the Biden administration and the U.N. Security Council over a year ago, and enshrined in the ceasefire agreement finalized by the Trump administration in January. That brought about a six-week ceasefire, the release of 25 living hostages and the remains of eight others, and a flood of humanitarian aid.
The two sides were supposed to use that pause to negotiate a more lasting ceasefire. Instead, Israel ended the truce in March, demanding another temporary ceasefire and the release of some of the remaining hostages.
Israel fears that withdrawing from Gaza would allow Hamas to eventually rebuild its military machine and maintain influence in the territory even if doesn’t hold formal power, paving the way for another Oct. 7-style attack.
Netanyahu may also fear that his far-right allies would follow through on threats to bring down the government if he agrees to such terms. That could spell the end of his 16 nearly unbroken years in power, leaving him more vulnerable to long-running corruption charges and inquiries into the security and intelligence failures around the 2023 attack.
A ceasefire on Israel’s terms
Netanyahu has said he will end the war once all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated or agrees to disarm and go into exile.
But even then, he says Israel will pursue plans to relocate much of Gaza’s population to other countries through what he refers to as “voluntary emigration.” The Palestinians and much of the international community see the plan as forcible expulsion in violation of international law.
Netanyahu says Israel is willing to agree to a temporary ceasefire in which Hamas would release several living hostages and the bodies of others in return for the release of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, a flood of humanitarian aid and a partial Israeli pullback. They would then negotiate an end to the war, but Israel would require Hamas’ disarmament.
Hamas has said it is willing to hand over power to other Palestinians but will not lay down its arms as long as Israel occupies lands the Palestinians want for a future state. It also wants guarantees that Israel will not resume the war, as it did in March.
Further military escalation could yield more concessions. But Hamas has already lost thousands of fighters and nearly all of its top leaders in Gaza, where it no longer controls many areas. Its strongest allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have been severely weakened.
The hostages are the last bargaining chip held by Hamas, which also has a strong culture of martyrdom.
A forever war
It’s quite possible the war continues in its current state.
Israel could continue carrying out daily strikes across the territory, which it says have only targeted militants but have frequently killed adult civilians and children. Hamas could keep up a low tempo of hit-and-run attacks, occasionally killing Israeli soldiers. Additional measures to get more food into Gaza may stave off famine and allow aid to be distributed more safely.
The hostages could survive in captivity for months or even years.
Israel is set to hold elections in October 2026 — and likely earlier — which could bring in new leadership even if Netanyahu keeps his coalition intact.
Which scenario unfolds will largely depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, who has provided crucial military and diplomatic support to Israel, and who proved he has leverage over Netanyahu when he brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after 12 days of war in June.
Trump has said he wants to end the war in Gaza and bring the remaining hostages home, but he has exerted no public pressure on Israel and appears to have fully accepted its terms for a ceasefire.
Asked on Tuesday whether he would support Israel reoccupying Gaza, Trump said, “It’s going to be pretty much up to Israel.”
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