Some NFL teams have sports bettors feeling a little bit under

LAS VEGAS — Westgate SuperBook NFL odds guru Ed Salmons forecasts that the Saints are on the league’s slipperiest slope to a winless season.

Fifteen years ago, they delivered a Super Bowl to the Big Easy.

But this version should more closely mirror the one from 1980 that won one game. Its fans wore paper bags (with eye and mouth holes) over their heads and called them the Aints.

About a month ago, the SuperBook released Salmons’ projected point spreads of every NFL game, which made New Orleans an underdog in all 17 of its games.

The 2017 Browns and 2008 Lions played at least 16 games and lost every one.

Will an NFL team go 0-17 this season? The SuperBook has 10-to-1 odds on “yes,” -2000 on “no.”

(For 17-0, yes is 20-1, no -10000, or risk $100 to win a buck. The Bills are the lone squad Salmons favors in every game.)

I use those SuperBook figures as a template with which to poach value on season-total-victory under action. I bought Aints under 5.5 -150 at Circa, a nifty 5.5-game cushion compared to the Salmons projection.

Chicago native and OddsBreakers handicapper Kiev O’Neil nabbed New Orleans under 6.5 at BetOnline. At BetMGM, he bet under the alternate total of 4.5 at +240.

“It has no quarterback,” he said of Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler. “And it’s a honeymoon year for new coach [Kellen] Moore.”

(Odds and prices subject to change.)

Industry veteran Rex Beyers worked in the SuperBook backroom with Salmons and noted that he gets help from savvy colleagues Jeff Sherman and Jay Kornegay; a tight trio from their Imperial Palace days.

Still, Beyers called Salmons the city’s foremost authority on college and pro football.

“And I don’t think there’s a close second,” Beyers said. “Ed’s numbers are very, very strong. He’s a fairly private person and does a good job keeping stuff to himself when he’s not working.”

Saint Arch?

Another implication to a winless Saints season is a potential reunion with a favorite son, in this case former quarterback Archie Manning and grandson Arch, a junior at Texas.

Finishing 0-17 would secure the top pick in the next draft, and should Arch leave school early . . . nonsense, according to East Texas ’capper Paul Stone.

“I’ve been preaching all year that Arch Manning will be Texas’ full-time starting QB for two seasons, regardless of this season’s outcome,” Stone said.

“He loves Austin and the college experience. Arch and his family do things differently. They play the long game. You can’t ever say never, but I’d put Manning’s chances of putting his name in the 2026 NFL Draft at 15%.”

Under action

Salmons made the Giants favorites once, the Titans once (with a pick’em), the Browns once and the Jets three times. The Panthers are favored twice, with three pick’ems.

The Raiders are only favored in four games, so I bet under their 6.5 total, +120 at Circa, capitalizing on local bias.

I played Browns and Giants under 5.5, under 6.5 with the Panthers and under 7.5 for the Colts, favored three times with one pick’em,

With the NFL, I exclusively play season-total unders, relative to Salmons figures, because the smartest bettors I know believe it’s far easier for a team to sour than soar. Last season, I went 4-0, with two double-unit plays.

Solid barometer

Thanks to rotating coach-quarterback turnstiles, the Bears have gone over a projected victory total only once (2018, at 12-4) in the last 12 seasons.

Salmons, also the SuperBook’s VP of risk and operations, had the Bears favored nine times last season, and they finished 5-12. Favored seven times in 2023, they went 7-10.

The previous year, they were favored twice and won three games. In ’21, they won six when projected as the favorite in four tilts. Salmons has fairly nailed the Bears.

Now quarterback Caleb Williams is starting his second season with a rookie head coach, former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

The Bears’ universal total is 8.5, and Salmons has them favored six times. So 6-11 can be considered probable.

Under 8.5 is approximately -140, so betting under offers punters a 2.5-game cushion. Good value but not premium.

O’Neil hasn’t bit on under, yet, on the Bears.

“But I’m thinking about it,” he said. “Williams has skills, but I’m not sure that he has the NFL mind; less improvising and a lot more quick-thinking. [Johnson’s] offense is very layered, and Caleb needs to learn that fast without falling to frustration. The Bears start off bad and get better.”

Here in two weeks, we’ll analyze Bears action, for or against, with several ’cappers with Illinois connections.

Top billing

The Rams have quarterback-injury issues, the Niners are “a shell” of themselves and Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold “will regress,” O’Neil said. So he likes the Cardinals +470 to win the NFC West.

“The Cardinals quietly drafted well over the last few years,” he said. “There are studs at skill positions, and it’s just up to [quarterback] Kyler Murray to keep his head together.”

His favorite wager, however, is the Bills +275 to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

“This team has the best playmaker in the league in Josh Allen,” he said. “Their schedule is very winnable, as they get the Ravens and the Chiefs at home. Easier division and at-large games for a first-place team.”