Be wary of the weary: Hard to pick against the acclimated Vikings against the jet-lagged Browns

LAS VEGAS — Jacksonville had an established relationship with playing games in England. In 2023, though, it upped the ante by becoming the first NFL squad to play there on consecutive weekends.

The moment the schedule was released, Long Island handicapper Tom Barton salivated over the prospects of betting on the Jaguars in that second game.

The opponent almost didn’t factor into his thinking, as Barton figured the Jags would have an immense edge by being so accustomed to the major time-zone change, as opposed to the jet-lagged foes who has just flown over the pond.

At Wembley, Jacksonville beat Atlanta 23-7. A week later inside Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the game that Barton had circled for months, the Jaguars slapped Buffalo 25-20.

The Bills had been favored by 5.5 points, and Jacksonville’s moneyline was around +200, or risk $100 to win $200.

Similar thinking comes into play this week when Minnesota becomes the first NFL franchise to play in consecutive games abroad in different countries.

On Sunday, the Vikings lost to Pittsburgh 24-21 in Ireland. This week, it’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, where Minnesota plays Cleveland.

A preseason line of Vikings -7, at the Westgate SuperBook, grew to 8½ on last week’s look-ahead line, opened at 4½ at most Vegas shops this week and has been whittled to 3½.

It might entail an extra logistical headache, for the shipping of tons of equipment and food, but the Vikings’ body clocks will be finely tuned to London. The Browns will be the weary travelers.

Barton confirmed that he leans toward Minnesota precisely due to the body-clock reasoning. “Yes,” he said, “I love that they stayed there.”

He’s concerned, however, about the Vikings’ tenuous offensive-line situation. (Which nearly applies to every NFL team.)

The Vikes cut a receiver Monday and inked former North Dakota tackle Matt Waletzko, a Minnesota native who caught the next flight to the UK.

A fifth-round draft pick by Dallas in 2022, Waletzko participated in 11 games, starting none, over the past three seasons.

In an ESPN feature, Minnesota officials explained why they wanted this challenge, especially since they retain eight home games.

Studies showed they’d have slightly less than half of the fan support in Ireland. In London, however, they might draw two-thirds of the revelers.

For what it’s worth, the site Team Rankings power rates Minnesota at 2.3, Cleveland -6.7.

In filling in for J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz has been decent (44-for-66, 523 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions). On the other side, Dillon Gabriel replaces Joe Flacco at quarterback. Vikings win easily.

Best Bet 

VIKINGS vs BROWNS (in London)
Time: 8:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL.
Line: Vikings by 4½.
Total: 36½.
Records (overall/ATS): Vikings 2-2/2-2; Browns 1-3/2-2.
Pick: Vikings 21, Browns 13.
Play: Vikings -4½.

TOP PLAYS

RAIDERS at COLTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Colts by 7.
Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 1-3/1-3; Colts 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: Three months ago, games like this helped justify betting under a Raiders projected win total of 6½ (+135, Station Casinos). After the Colts’ first loss, QB Daniel Jones (third-rated 8.9 yards per throw) rights Indy’s ship.
Pick: Colts 27, Raiders 13.
Play: Colts -7.

TITANS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Cards by 7½.
Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 0-4/1-3; Cardinals 2-2/2-2.
Outlook: The Titans have failed to cover 18 of their last 21 tilts. Read that again. Let it marinate. Titans QB Cam Ward has been sacked an NFL-high 17 times. The Cards sport a top-three defense, yielding a paltry 0.272 points per play.
Pick: Cards 23, Titans 6.
Play: Cardinals -7½.

LIONS at BENGALS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Lions by 10½.
Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 3-1/3-1; Bengals 2-2/1-3.
Outlook: The Bengals have been pounded 76-13 in two games after losing QB Joe Burrow (toe). Jake Browning has five interceptions in those tilts. The Lions are skittish on the road, but Cincy is sinking fast in play design.
Pick: Lions 30, Bengals 13.
Play: Lions -10½.

THE REST OF THE GAMES

GIANTS at SAINTS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Saints by 2½. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS):
Giants 1-3/2-2; Saints 0-4/1-3.
Outlook: Since 2021, New Orleans is .353 ATS at home, the only worse team in its own barn being Atlanta (.343). The Saints remain on a slippery slope toward a winless campaign and do not deserve to be favored against anybody.
Pick: Giants 20, Saints 6.
Play: Giants +2½.

COWBOYS at JETS
Time: Noon Sunday, Fox 32.
Line: Cowboys by 2½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 1-2-1/2-2; Jets 0-4/2-2.
Outlook: The Jets became the fifth team in 90 seasons to go 0-4 without recording a takeaway. “Where is his head?” Joe Namath penned Sunday on X after Isaiah Williams fair-caught a punt at his own 2! Bad players. Bad coaching. Bad team.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Jets 10.
Play: Cowboys -2½.

BRONCOS at EAGLES
Time: Noon Sunday, CBS 2.
Line: Eagles by 3½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 2-2/1-3; Eagles 4-0/3-1.
Outlook: The Broncos allow 0.273 points per play (PPP), the fourth-best defensive efficiency in the NFL. After allowing a field goal six minutes in, they zapped the Bengals 28-0. Bo Nix ran one in and threw for two TDs.
Pick: Broncos 27, Eagles 26.
Play: Broncos +3½.

DOLPHINS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Dolphins -1½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 0-4/1-3; Panthers 1-3/2-2.
Outlook: Miami’s defense is in the league’s basement, yielding 0.533 PPP. At home, Carolina is fourth in offensive efficiency, at 0.545 PPP. This is just the second home tilt for the Panthers, the first being a 30-0 belting of the Falcons.
Pick: Panthers 23, Dolphins 6.
Play: Panthers +1½.

TEXANS at RAVENS
Time: Noon Sunday.
Line: Texans by 1. Total: 42½.
Records (overall/ATS): Texans 1-3/1-3; Ravens 1-3/1-3.
Outlook: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is out. In steps Cooper Rush, who has played 33 games with Dallas over the last four seasons; he’s 9-5 as a starter. The Texans are 0-8 lifetime in Baltimore, lucky to tally double figures.
Pick: Ravens 21, Texans 10.
Play: Ravens +1.

BUCCANEERS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Seahawks -3½. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bucs 3-1/2-2; Seahawks 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: Hawks QB Sam Darnold sits tied atop the NFL with Lamar Jackson, at 9.1 yards per toss. Plus, Seattle is No. 1 with a 0.226 PPP margin, which shoots to 0.337 at home. Tampa Bay is middling (0.003 margin) on the road.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Bucs 13.
Play: Seahawks -3½.

COMMANDERS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:25 p.m. Sunday.
Line: Chargers by 2½. Total: 47½.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 2-2/2-2; Chargers 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: Exactly how in the wide, wide world of sports did the Chargers lay down like that Sunday at the Giants? First, two turnovers. Second, 107-43 in penalty yards. It should be corrected in a big way in this one.
Pick: Chargers 29, Commanders 10.
Play: Chargers -2½.

PATRIOTS at BILLS
Time: 7:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC 5.
Line: Bills by 7½. Total: 50½.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 2-2/2-2; Bills 4-0/2-2.
Outlook: I am fortunate to have access to a football analyst who quantifies Buffalo’s offensive drives and schemes at +8.61, tops in the AFC. Division rivals New England checks in a -0.42, the Dolphins and Jets fall off a cliff.
Pick: Bills 31, Pats 20.
Play: Bills -7½.

CHIEFS at JAGUARS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN, ABC 7.
Line: Chiefs by 3½. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 2-2/2-2; Jaguars 3-1/3-1.
Outlook: The Jags lead the league with a +2.3 turnover margin. Jax RB Travis Etienne Jr averages nearly 100 yards. Plus, delivering more kudos to the Jacksonville O-line, QB Trevor Lawrence has been sacked just three times.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Chiefs 10.
Play: Jaguars +3½ .

(Byes: BEARS, Atlanta, Green Bay, Pittsburgh)