A diplomacy of shared benefits to Cyprus, EU and Turkey

By Averof Neophytou

The election of Tufan Erhurman as the new leader of the Turkish Cypriot community has brought the stalled Cyprus issue back into the spotlight.

A number of reasons led most Turkish Cypriots to vote differently this time: the economic situation, Turkey’s interference in education and on secular issues, and Ersin Tatar’s “two-state” policy. A majority of 63 per cent rejected Tatar’s policies over the last five years despite forces friendly to Tatar voting in favour of a ‘parliament’ decision for two states, just a few days before the elections. The forces interested in progress, and Erhurman personally, left the chamber before the vote took place.

On October 19, the real sentiments of the Turkish Cypriots emerged at the ballot box with Tatar renounced and a strong mandate for Erhurman. This is a reality: not all Turkish Cypriot political forces are the same. Rauf Denktash, Dervis Eroglu and Tatar are one thing, and Mehmet Ali Talat, Mustafa Akinci and Erhurman are another. The majority of Turkish Cypriots reject the two-state solution and support the Cyprus solution and the European future of our common homeland.

However, let us not create the illusion that Erhurman will represent our community. He will defend and try to serve the interests of his own. He is, however, in favour of a united Cyprus.

Let’s look at the substance: a solution that fits in with Europe, all of Cyprus as part of Europe, with the European acquis in place from Akamas to Apostolos Andreas. Otherwise, half of it will become Anatolia and the rest will be at risk of getting caught up in the maelstrom of economic and geostrategic rivalry among Britain, Israel and Russia.

The election result marginalises Tatar’s policy and opens up possibilities for a return to the discussion on resolving the Cyprus issue for the benefit of all Cypriot people. However, it is also true that without Turkey’s support, a solution to the Cyprus problem will not be possible.

A new situation lies ahead of us. We can either utilise it in a positive way or bypass it indifferently. The challenge for President Christodoulides is clear: he must step forward, take initiatives and lead the way, bearing in mind that opportunities can simply come along. Either you take advantage of them, or they pass you by. Either you take the lead, or you lag behind developments and initiatives taken by others.

Either you become the president of the solution or – fatally – the president of partition.

For many, the Cyprus problem may be considered dormant. At the same time they are reassured by a false perception, a peculiar sense of security because the economic indicators reveal prosperity. We all know, however, that as time passes, the occupation becomes cemented on the ground and partition can become the perception. Playing for time only deepens the impasse, more than half a century has passed. It is our country that is under occupation. We want territories returned, the property issue settled, and the occupying troops to withdraw. Turkey, meanwhile, is comfortable with continuing the occupation.

It is utopian to believe that the status quo guarantees long-term security and economic development.

The firing of one gunshot on the green line and both our security and economic prosperity could be shattered.

In contrast, a solution to the Cyprus problem, featuring a united Cyprus in the EU, opens up horizons of economic prosperity and security in the short, medium and long term.

Territorial adjustments and property settlements alone will give tens of billions in value to refugees and property owners in the occupied areas.

Infrastructure projects for the opening of Varosha – water supply, sewage system, electricity and telecommunications network – will add many billions to the GDP.

The development of hydrocarbon deposits throughout our EEZ are worth several tens of billions of euros, but without a solution, we will make and announce plans, but nothing will come to fruition, as has been the case since 2011.

The problem will be the overheating of the economy and not the alleged cost of the solution, as foolish analyses seem to take for granted.

But above all these potential economic benefits stand something much more important: the peace and security dividend which is priceless. Trillions of euros cannot replace it.

The key to unlocking the Cyprus issue is to build and exploit a “positive agenda” that serves the interests of our country.

Aligning EU and Turkey priorities for Safe and Customs Union

Discussions on strengthening European defence through the Safe programme dominate the EU agenda today. Many of our EU partners consider Turkey a strategic partner, but also a useful and possibly indispensable ally. Those of our partners who believe that Turkey is essential for European security need to realise that a secure Cyprus is also a necessary condition for the sustainability of EU security. It is time for the EU, and the West in general, to realise that European security is not possible without a secure Cyprus.

This is where leadership and vision are needed, but also proper strategic planning to shake things up and resolve the Cyprus issue, with Europe coming out on top and our entire neighbourhood benefiting.

The trick is not to block the interests of others. This is easy and, perhaps, very popular with the domestic audience. The trick is to reconnect the European interests at stake with the greatest Cypriot interest: a united country, free of occupying troops. Otherwise, the occupation will remain, and Turkey will participate in Safe.

The positive agenda favours Cyprus. The resolution of the Cyprus problem, on the one hand would contribute to bolstering European defence and, on the other, facilitate defence cooperation between the EU and Nato. In addition, it would unblock all stalled energy plans in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Given the recent agreement in Gaza, the resolution of the Cyprus issue takes on even greater significance because it will contribute substantially to the new geopolitical map of the region.

Only in this way can Cyprus secure its future and become a reliable link in the new architecture of our region.

Diplomacy based on common interests is the only approach that produces real results for Cyprus: common interests with Europe, mutual interests with the Turkish Cypriots. With this diplomacy, Cyprus can become a factor in developments with a geopolitical footprint and serve our highest national interest and duty: to reunite our homeland.

Without this positive agenda of aligning the interests of the EU, there is a serious risk that Turkey will achieve its goals, while we achieve none: the occupation will remain and Turkey will participate in Safe.

The struggle for the settlement and the settlement itself must be promoted as the greatest, most radical reform for our country. We must leave behind the pathologies of the system and tackle the crisis of institutions and crisis of trust that we are experiencing with an attack on the future, with the good of the people and the country as our banner and truth as our weapon.

Averof Neophytou is a deputy and former leader of Disy.