U.S. winter weather outlook and how La Niña will factor in
La Niña’s impact on the U.S. winter weather outlook
The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña Advisory, as La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is likely to continue through February 2026. La Niña is just one phase of ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, a global climate system that impacts circulations across the world, influencing the weather.
La Niña is often considered the cool phase of ENSO, because La Niña is when the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average. This causes dry, sinking air over the tropical Pacific, while air rises near Southeast Asia, leading to more clouds, rain, and storm activity there.
As for the United States and North America, what will La Niña bring for winter this season? It all depends on your location!
Winter this season
The jet stream during a La Niña winter is more variable across North America. It drifts farther north into the northern Pacific. And while it often drifts farther south across the southern United States, there is variability with that location of the jet stream as well.
This sets up a pattern where southern Alaska through western Canada and into the northern Plains of the United States will likely end up with cooler and wetter than average weather. Meanwhile, the United States stretching from California through the Gulf Coast and out toward the Carolinas will likely be drier and warmer than average. Areas closer to where the jet stream will meander – typically around the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys – will likely experience wetter than average conditions.
Winter weather outlook
The Climate Prediction Center has also released its Winter Weather Outlook for the United States. It is influenced by the fact that La Niña has developed and is expected to continue through February.
Meteorologists and climatologists don’t use astronomical winter for their forecasts and outlooks. The winter solstice – or the astronomical start of winter – is December 21 this year. But it varies from year to year. That’s because it’s tied to when the sun is above the Tropic of Capricorn.
Meteorological winter begins every year on December 1 and runs through the last day of February. This set range is better for temperature and precipitation averages for a season, as the dates are always the same.
So, what’s the CPC’s winter outlook for the United States for December, January and February? It has a good portion of the U.S. outlined in a higher likelihood for warmer-than-average temperatures. This includes California through Texas and the Gulf Coast as well as the southeast and up toward the Mid-Atlantic. The northern Plains are the most likely to experience cooler-than-average temperatures.
For precipitation, much of the northern and middle United States has a better chance of experiencing a wetter-than normal winter, with dry weather most likely for the southern half of the country.
A winter weather outlook is not an exact forecast
These seasonal outlooks are not exact forecasts. La Niña will play a role in what we can expect this winter. But just because an area is expected to be drier than normal doesn’t mean it won’t experience days of rain or even snow. It also means areas expected to be below average may still experience unusually warm days during winter.
This outlook means that through the entire three-month season, this is the most likely scenario. Make sure to stay up to date with your local forecasts through the winter through your local National Weather Service office.
Bottom line: La Niña has developed and should stay in place through February. This will impact what kind of winter we will experience, but it depends on your location.
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