Pac-12 power rankings: San Diego State remains on top as CFP path widens, Boise State falls and WSU inches up
Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The math that matters most improved incrementally for the collection of schools that will form the new Pac-12.
San Diego State’s prospects for reaching the College Football Playoff are no longer just this side of impossible. They have been upgraded to highly unlikely.
Instead of trying to solve advanced calculus, the Aztecs are now staring at trigonometry.
Nothing would add rocket fuel to the July 2026 debut of the rebuilt Pac-12 quite like one of its members participating in the 2025 playoff.
The Aztecs are the best option — the only option, in fact — given their status as a two-loss team with two games remaining, plus the Mountain West championship.
But when Week 12 began, they were behind five teams in the American and one in the Sun Belt.
Now, they are merely behind three in the American and one in the Sun Belt.
Losses by South Florida and Memphis on Saturday derailed their playoff drives — not completely, perhaps, but enough for San Diego State to vault ahead in the race for the automatic berth awarded to the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five.
By our count, North Texas (9-1), Navy (8-2) and Tulane (8-2) are better positioned than the Aztecs (8-2), along with James Madison (9-1), the frontrunner in the Sun Belt.
Records matter in the CFP race, but so, too, do metrics like schedule stretch and quality wins. And the best American teams seemingly have an advantage over SDSU at this point because of the conference’s collective performance over Power Four opponents.
American teams have defeated Duke, Northwestern, Arkansas, Florida and Kansas State.
Also, there are several instructive head-to-head results that favor the American contingent, including South Florida’s beatdown of Boise State and North Texas’ wipeout of Washington State, which beat the Aztecs handily.
If the Mean Green and San Diego State become involved in a resume showdown on selection weekend, their comparative results against WSU could be influential.
But with two Saturdays remaining in the regular season, a conference that doesn’t exist yet has a narrow path into an event that would create incalculable momentum.
The Aztecs must win out, of course. And clearly, they need help. But we’re saying there’s a chance.
(All times Pacific)
1. San Diego State (8-2)
Result: beat Boise State 17-7Next up: vs. San Jose State (7:30 p.m. on FS1)Comment: The Aztecs grabbed sole possession of first place in the Mountain West by completing six passes for 17 yards. After the game, the 1950s sent their regards. (Previous: 1)
2. Fresno State (7-3)
Result: beat Wyoming 24-3Next up: vs. Utah State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)Comment: It’s like the Bulldogs morphed into a different team for two games (the lopsided losses to Colorado State and SDSU) but now are back to being the bully they were through the season’s first half. (Previous: 2)
3. Washington State (5-5)
Result: beat Louisiana Tech 28-3Next up: at James Madison (10 a.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Admittedly, the Hotline was deeply skeptical of WSU’s prospects for a bowl berth under Jimmy Rogers, not only before the season but through the first month. Rogers has done a nice job under tough circumstances, but one more victory is required, and it’s probably not coming next weekend. (Previous: 4)
4. Boise State (6-4)
Result: lost at San Diego State 17-7Next up: vs. Colorado State (4 p.m. on FS1)Comment: That’s 14 points (combined) in the seven quarters played without quarterback Maddux Madsen. Regression is normal when the starter goes down, but Boise State’s backslide is far beyond what we would have expected. All in all, a lost season for the Broncos. (Previous: 3)
5. Utah State (5-5)
Result: lost at UNLV 29-26 (2OT)Next up: at Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)Comment: The Aggies were on the brink of securing a bowl berth but gave up the game-tying field goal with two minutes left, missed the winner (from 44 yards) in regulation, missed the winner (from 41) in the first overtime and lost in the second. Brutal. (Previous: 5)
6. Texas State (4-6)
Result: won at Southern Miss 41-14Next up: vs. UL Monroe (2 p.m. on ESPN+)Comment: Had you told us prior to the season that the Bobcats would not collect their first Sun Belt victory until Nov. 15, the Hotline would have recommended you avoid the magic mushrooms. (Previous: 6)
7. Oregon State (2-9)
Result: lost at Tulsa 31-14Next up: idleComment: A year that stinks like rotten milk will probably end with the Beavers playing the spoiler role and attempting to keep their Pac-12 comrade, Washington State, out of the postseason. (Previous: 7)
8. Colorado State (2-8)
Result: lost at New Mexico 20-17Next up: at Boise State (4 p.m. on FS1)Comment: Will the Rams hire a permanent coach hours after their season finale or wait and see who’s available after the full force of the coaching carousel plays out across the first half of December? Or might they aim for the middle ground between those extremes? (Previous: 8)
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