What to make of Venezuela

When news first broke of the US attack on Venezuela, I was perplexed as just bombing Venezuela was unlikely to overthrow Maduro, and a full invasion could be costly. I did wonder if it was part of a plan to capture Maduro, and so it was. In just 150 minutes Maduro was a prisoner of the United States, and not a single US solider was killed. From a military point of view it was an incredible operation, and one that could cause other country leaders to have a nervous night’s sleep – be it Cuba or Denmark.

Maduro rigged the last election and was an illegitimate President. His departure will be welcomed by many Venezuelans. There is already huge celebrations. He was guided by Cuban security guards as he couldn’t even trust his own people not to turn on him.

While Maduro was a bad man, does that mean the US was justified in using military force to seize him? There are many countries with bad leaders. The answer is somewhere between a possible yes and a probable no. He was under indictment from US courts on drug charges, and there was a precedent based on the invasion of Panama to seize Manuel Noriega. However Panama actually had declared war on the US, and a US marine was shot at a road block. This gave George H W Bush greater justification. Also there was broad political consensus in the US for military action. I doubt the actions in Venezuela are legal under international law, but it is no surprise Trump would not be concerned with opinions on this.

It is also worth noting that Trump sent troops in to arrest Maduro on drug smuggling charges, but a few weeks ago he pardoned Juan Orlando Hernández, the former president of Honduras, from his 45 year sentence for drug smuggling.

I thought that the removal of Maduro would see María Corina Machado Parisca become President – the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner and opposition leader. But Trump rather dismissively said she is a “nice woman” but not got enough support to be President of Venezuela. Maybe he is annoyed at her for winning what he saw as his peace prize. So for now VP Delcy Venezuela is the President of Venezuela.

Trump has said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will lead a team to run Venezuela, making this tweet before that announcement even funnier. For those who don’t know Rubio is the Secretary of State, Acting National Security Advisor and Acting National Archivist of the United States.

It is very unclear what will happen next. Trump is not going to do an Iraq and remove all aspects of the previous administration from power (which was a critical mistake). In fact he seems to be doing what I thought should have been done in Iraq, which is to tell the next in line to run the country but behave well or they’ll be captured also.

He has also said US oil companies will take over the running of Venezuela oil. Now their infrastructure was run down by the previous Government, which is partly when so many are now in poverty there. But Trump is saying some of the money will go to the US to reimburse them, so for once we do have a US war that was about oil! (the left thing every US war is about oil!). I am not sure how US companies can run Venezuela oil without US troops on the ground.

It is also very unclear if there will be regional fighting for power, as nature abhors a vacuum. So while the outcome of Maduro in custody with no loss of US life is a good one, it could still turn very messy.

This tweet seems to sum things up rather well!

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