Trump 'undercut his own ambitions' with dismal decision ahead of midterms: analysis

Donald Trump has undercut the GOP's chances at the upcoming midterms yet again with a decision that goes against voters, a political analyst has claimed.

Thomas B. Edsall believes the president has hindered his party's chances at the November elections by highlighting erosion within his supporter base. Edsall, writing in the New York Times, suggested, "Trump's posting of a video portraying Barack and Michelle Obama as apes is one of his more glaring miscalculations, which have given Democrats an opening to halt a steady erosion of support among minority voters crucial to their party's chances for success.

"Since then, however, Trump — with the brutality of his drive to deport hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants and the counterproductivity of his economic policies — is doing everything in his power to destroy the opportunity he had to secure and strengthen the Republican coalition.

"Now the conventional wisdom, including on the right, is that Trump has undercut his own ambitions. Trump’s disdainful treatment of his newfound supporters does not, however, mean the Democratic Party can breathe a sigh of relief."

Latino voters will, in particular, affect the election outcome this November, according to Edsall. He added, "There are clear indications that Trump’s loss of support among Latino voters will have political consequences this November.

"A Republican congressional redistricting plan designed to add five seats for the party is now in danger because of threats to Republican incumbents in heavily Hispanic districts along the southern border."

Trump's polling with both Black and Latino voters has shifted rapidly between February 2025 and now, with a year-long decline spotted in NPR/PBS/Marist surveying.

Edsall wrote, "The surveys showed Trump’s ratings among Black voters falling from 36 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable in February 2025 to 32 favorable and 64 unfavorable last month. Among Latino voters, Trump’s ratings fell from 44 percent favorable and 46 unfavorable to 38 favorable and 54 unfavorable.

"Put another way, Trump’s net favorability fell by 13 percentage points among Black voters and by 14 points among Latinos." The numbers for GOP members are "somewhat murky," according to Edsall, who believes the party will struggle not just in the midterms but also in the 2028 elections.

He wrote, "Trump has inflicted serious damage on his party’s attempt to build an increasingly multiracial coalition. The elections this year and in 2028 will, in all likelihood, show a step backward on this front."