This is the only solution to China's labor shortage
Thomson Reuters
Faced with a skilled labor shortage, China relaxed its one-child policy. Married couples may now have a second child.
Will the change help? Maybe—but not for a long time.
Do Chinese want to reproduce?
Going from a one-child policy to a two-child policy is not radical change. Beijing still centrally manages both production and reproduction. This move was more of a tactical adjustment.
Furthermore, it isn’t clear the policy did anything. China’s birth rate was already plummeting before it took effect in 1980. Since then, percentage fertility dropped even faster in South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Those countries didn’t need government edicts to limit population growth. It happened naturally through economic incentives and cultural changes. The same might have occurred in China even without an official policy.
China already allowed a second child in 2013 for couples in which one member is an only child. That adjustment has not yet spurred any noticeable change.
Growing a new work force will take up to 20 expensive years
Even if the new policy raises China’s birth rate, it will be 15–20 years before any new children start working. In the meantime, it may actually reduce the work force as women take maternity leave.
The sad fact is even a first child is more than many Chinese couples can afford. City life is extremely expensive, but that’s where the jobs are.
Thomson Reuters30 million unmarried men
Meanwhile, China still faces a troublesome gender imbalance. Decades of one-child policy created too many males.
By 2020, the country will have over 30 million unmarried adult men with no potential brides. This huge mass of unchannelled testosterone could spark social unrest.
One Chinese economist proposed an interesting solution: wife sharing. This would be great reality TV fodder, but won’t solve the problem.
The answer is robots and biotechnologies
So what can China do? In the short term, the choices are to either import new workers or build better robots to replace people.
The latter is already happening. The former is unlikely.
One long-term solution works for everybody: Solve the aging problem and increase “health spans.” Help people live longer lives that are more productive.
Life extension biotechnologies are developing rapidly. China, whose culture holds deep reverence for older people, could be the first to adopt them aggressively.
With few other options, life extension may be China’s best answer to labor shortages.
MORE FROM TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES
Read about the enormous impact of a rapidly aging population, breakthrough treatments and the way all of these advancements will create longer health spans in theTransformational Technologies publication on Mauldin Economics.
- Welcome to the “Age” Age
- Life Extension, Culture, and Politics
- Why Treating Age as a Disease Will Save Our Failing Healthcare System
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