The Nuclear Deal Hasn't Changed Iran

James Phillips

Politics, Middle East

Obama has reinforced Tehran's status quo, not empowered reformers.

Editor’s Note: The National Interest and the Heritage Foundation have partnered for a multi-part occasional series examining various aspects of the Iran nuclear agreement. The below is part three of the series. You can read previous parts here: one and two.

Under the Iran nuclear agreement, key restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear operations will be lifted in ten to fifteen years. This makes no sense unless the Obama administration believes that Iran’s dictatorship has changed its spots and can now be trusted to uphold the nuclear nonproliferation commitments it has repeatedly violated in the past.

The administration has hinted the nuclear deal itself makes this transformation possible by somehow helping Iranian “moderates” in their power struggle with hard-liners.

But the outcome of Iran’s opaque internal power struggle is wholly unpredictable. Washington would be wise not to overestimate its ability to shape Iranian politics. At this point, the administration has an agreement with President Hassan Rouhani’s faction, which is more pragmatic than the ultra-hard-liners, but is by no means “moderate.”

Rouhani is the smiling face of the Iranian state, but Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, remains the implacable kingpin of Iran’s Islamic revolution. The two have worked closely for years and continue to collaborate as a “good cop/bad cop” tag team.

Proof that Iran’s regime has not changed is the fact that it is still in the hostage-taking business. On the very day that the nuclear agreement came into effect, January 16, Tehran exchanged four innocent Americans it was holding hostage in return for seven Iranians charged with sanctions violations. The regime also released a fifth American, a student jailed for unknown reasons.