Kentucky Derby braces for a California invasion

Kentucky Derby braces for a California invasion

In 2012, I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister finished 1-2 in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

In 2014, California Chrome won the Derby and Preakness.

In 2015, American Pharoah swept all three Triple Crown races and even won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The common thread:

Based on the superiority demonstrated by Golden State horses in this year’s prep races for 3-year-olds and in last year’s top events for 2-year-olds, California’s run of success at the Kentucky Derby figures to continue Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Nyquist leads the five-horse California contingent.

Nyquist had only one 7-furlong race this year prior to the 11/8-mile Florida Derby, yet he won by 3¼ lengths and left previously undefeated Mohaymen five lengths farther back in fourth.

The others include:

Exaggerator, who won the Santa Anita Derby by 6¼ lengths.

The speedy Danzing Candy, who romped in the San Felipe Stakes.

Mor Spirit, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes after winning the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Trojan Nation, a winless colt who lost five maiden races in California but went to New York and came within a head of taking the Wood Memorial at odds of 81-to-1.

Another California maiden, Laoban, didn’t make the Kentucky Derby field but finished second in the Gotham Stakes and fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes.

“I think our big edge in California is just the weather,” said Doug O’Neill, who trains Nyquist.

The gentleman at Santa Anita, Denis Moore, who handles the track really keeps a good cushion on it in the morning so horses get a lot of fitness because they have to work a little bit to get through it.

There are some issues with Nyquist, like his modest speed ratings and the fact that only one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner — Street Sense — captured the Kentucky Derby.

[...] the speed figures for this year’s 3-year-olds as a whole are subpar, and Nyquist appears to be the kind of horse that runs just fast enough to win.

Overall, favorites have won the past three derbies and seven of the past 16 after losing 20 straight.

The Nyquist team — O’Neill, jockey Mario Gutierrez and owner J. Paul Reddam — also had I’ll Have Another, who was 15-to-1 when he won the Derby four years ago.

“You can’t compare the two horses because Nyquist is favored and I’ll Have Another was a long shot,” said Gutierrez on Sunday after riding in the Campanile Stakes at Golden Gate Fields.

Larry Stumes is a freelance writer.

Larry Stumes’ Kentucky Derby handicap

1¼ miles, 3-year-olds, 126 pounds, purse $2 million

PP

Jockey

Odds

Unbeaten, from California

Should be loose on the lead

Desormeaux

Dominated SA Derby in slop

Tampa wins were highly rated

Gun Runner

Has style for a good trip

Won 5 before Fla.

Derby flop

Brody’s Cause

Rebounded nicely in Blue Grass

Mor Spirit

Baffert seeks fifth Derby win

Creator

Horrible trip in Louisiana Derby

Closed well in stakes debut

Jockey on a big-race roll

Yet to reach 90 Beyer Figure

Only has maiden sprint win

Surprising second in Fla.

Take

Won very weak UAE Derby

Maiden nearly won Wood

Oscar Nominated

Makes first start on dirt

The American Pharoah effect

American Pharoah’s Triple Crown victory last year, which began with winning the 141st Kentucky Derby, has been good for racing:

Wagering on American races is up 3.1 percent through March, to $2.4 billion.

Wagering on American races in 2015 was up 1.2 percent to $10.6 billion despite fewer race days, fewer races and fewer starters.

Buoyed by American Pharoah’s final race, NBC posted its highest-rated Breeders’ Cup Classic telecast in 20 years — an average of 4.6 million viewers between 2:45 and 3 p.m., up 53 percent from 2014.

Associated Press