Donald Trump Was Always Going To Be The GOP's Nominee According To Polls

Donald Trump’s success in securing the Republican nomination should not have surprised anyone. Polling data told us time and again that his message resonated with a substantial number of Republicans. But past elections indicated he had little chance. When data are at odds, analysts have to choose.

This is the dirty little secret of data journalism: Numbers are interpreted through whatever lens a writer puts on them, and sometimes analysts have to choose between different conclusions -- each valid -- based on different sources of data.