The Economic Arguments Against Brexit

On Monday, Her Majesty’s Treasury released a report claiming that a “Leave” vote in the June 23rd referendum on whether the United Kingdom should leave the European Union would plunge the British economy, which has been growing modestly for the past couple of years, into a slump. The report says that, in the event of “Brexit,” the unemployment rate would jump, while G.D.P., house prices, the stock market, and the value of the pound sterling would all be hit hard. To emphasize this message, the Treasury posted a big headline on the home page of its Web site: “UK economy would fall into RECESSION if Britain leaves the EU.” In case the message wasn’t clear, the word “RECESSION” was printed in red, with cracks in the letters.