10 things you need to know today (spy, spx, qqq, dia, db, ko, sne)

Reuters/Thaier Al-Sudani

Here is what you need to know.

A black swan event in oil could send prices to $25 a barrel. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's commodities research team says continued dollar strength could cause a black swan in the oil market. The team thinks an even stronger dollar will cause Saudi Arabia to cut its production or depeg its currency, the rial, from the dollar. The fallout from such a decision could cause Brent crude oil to crash to $25 a barrel, BAML says. The energy component is trading down 0.6% at $48.05 a barrel.

Germany's ZEW survey fell. German economic sentiment fell in May. The ZEW survey sank to 6.4 from April's 11.2 print, missing economist expectations of a move up to 12.1. "The strong growth of the German economy in the first quarter of 2016 appears to have surprised the financial market experts," said professor Achim Wambach, the president of ZEW. "However, they seem not to expect the economic situation to improve at the same pace going forward. Uncertainties regarding developments such as a possible Brexit currently inhibit a more optimistic outlook." The euro is weaker by 0.4% at 1.1179.

"Remain" is building a big lead in the Brexit vote. A new poll conducted by the ORB for The Daily Telegraph showed that 55% of people backed staying in the European Union, compared with 42% wanting to leave. The latest results have sent the British pound higher by 0.8% at 1.4603. The referendum vote is scheduled for June 23.

Deutsche Bank was downgraded. Moody's cut Deutsche Bank's credit rating to "Baa2," down from "Baa1." The credit-rating agency said the downgrade was a result of the bank's difficulty in stabilizing itself amid a world of low growth and low interest rates. Moody's said, "Deutsche Bank's performance over the last several quarters has been weak, and substantial operating headwinds, including continuing low interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty, will challenge the firm."

Sony had a rough quarter. The electronics maker announced an operating profit of 300 billion yen ($2.75 billion) for the year that ended in March, missing the 409 billion yen Thomson Reuters estimate. Sony said the disappointing quarter was the result of its being forced to close its sensor plant in Kumamoto after earthquakes rocked the Japanese city. Sony says the quarter would have been in line with estimates if the quakes didn't occur.

The hottest startup in China is flatlining. The Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi barely grew in 2015, according to a report from Scott Cendrowski of Fortune. The report suggests that Xiaomi's revenue grew just 5% in 2015 to 78 billion yuan ($11.9 billion), missing a target of 100 billion yuan. The Fortune report also said internet services revenue totaled $560 million versus $1 billion predicted. A Xiaomi representative told Business Insider: "We are not able to comment on the revenue figure mentioned. What we have shared is that we sold over 70 million smartphones in 2015 despite the shrinking of the overall China smartphone market."

Coca-Cola production has been halted in Venezuela. Venezuela's Coca-Cola bottler has stopped production because of a sugar shortage, Reuters reports. According to an email sent to Reuters by spokeswoman Kerry Tressler, diet drinks that don't contain sugar are still being produced. Venezuela is in the midst of an economic crisis that has produced food and power shortages amid high inflation.

Stock markets around the world are mixed. France's CAC (+1.4%) leads the gains in Europe after Japan's Nikkei (-0.9%) trailed in Asia. S&P 500 futures are up 6.25 points at 2,051.25.

Earnings reporting is light. AutoZone, Best Buy, and Toll Brothers are among the names reporting ahead of the opening bell. Hewlett Packard Enterprise will release its quarterly results after markets close.

Economic data trickles out. New-home sales will cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is higher by one basis point at 1.84%.

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