Is Russia Preparing for War?

Dave Majumdar

Security, Europe

Could "snap exercises" really be the disguise for something more? 

Is Russia preparing for a new war in Ukraine? The answer—according to some of the best analysts specializing in the region—is: Maybe.

Some, like former The National Interest editor, Dr. Nikolas Gvosdev, currently the Jerome E. Levy Chair for Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College, suggest that Moscow could be preparing for military action in Ukraine. Gvosdev—who had been asked to make the case for why Russia might embark on such a course of action for an evening discussion at the Center for the National Interest—noted that he was speaking in a personal capacity using open-source materials. Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center made the counter argument explaining why it is  highly unlikely Moscow would embark upon a new adventure in Ukraine.

Russian Preparations for War:

“Russia may be gearing up and preparing for military action,” Gvosdev said at the Center for the National Interest—which is the Washington-based foreign policy think-tank that publishes The National Interest—on Sept. 13. “That comes on the heels of the latest Russian snap exercise. What we have seen with these snap exercises over the last several years is that they get bigger—more people, more equipment, wider range and increasingly—to borrow a term from American parlance—they’re whole of government exercises.”

It is the sheer scale of Russian snap exercises that concern Western governments, Gvosdev said. These enormous Russian exercises typically involve more than 100,000 troops from across the spectrum of military forces. Moreover, a host of Russian government agencies take part in these drills. But while it is easy to dismiss the Russian drills as a simple exercise, such maneuvers inevitably lull outside powers into a false sense of security. “Every time you do an exercise, you gain several benefits,” Gvosdev said. “It makes it harder to differential between what is an exercise and what is in fact a mobilization or preparation for a strike.”