Tackling the Problem of Irregular Migration On Land And At Sea in the Mediterranean

Nicholas A. Glavin

Refugees, Mediterranean

Since the end of 2013, over 300,000 migrants have crossed the Central Mediterranean from North Africa to Italy and Malta. The Central Mediterranean route has accounted for 85% of migrant deaths, yet it comprises just over a quarter of all arrivals from 2014 to mid-2016. This region has yet again become high-risk to migrants and high-reward to smugglers in the six months since a migrant deal between the European Union and Turkey blocked the main routes into Europe.

 The greatest threat to American and European interests in Libya is the weak power projection of the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The common denominator among irregular migration, armed groups using Libya as a safe haven, and criminal enterprises capitalizing on the country’s lawlessness is Libya’s inability to establish an internationally recognized and domestically supported government. This Rubick’s Cube lying less than 310 miles south of Italy is the key impediment to managing the greatest refugee and migrant crisis in seventy years.

 Breaking the business model of migrant smugglers’ activities is one of the main challenges for the international community. The annual revenue of migrant smuggling in 2015 was worth an estimated $5-6 billion, with 90% of the migrants’ travel being facilitated by members of a criminal network. So long as there remains a steady flow of migrants, smugglers will find avenues and incentives to operate. 

While the Government of National Accord can authorize consent for international support, such as nearly 150 U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State elements and an EU mission to train the Libyan coast guard and navy in countering irregular migration, the international community is constrained by the lack of a viable partner across the Mediterranean who can patrol Libya’s porous borders, dislodge criminal enterprises, and monopolize governance and the use of force.