Oscar Nominations Predictions: Expect Lotsa ‘La La Land’ But What Else?

Damien Chazelle’s musical could score a lucky 13 with Oscar voters, but there are lots of question marks as nominations morning approaches

At least, that’s what you get if you add up my predictions for the Oscar nominations: a monster haul for “La La Land,” which if I’m right would end up with more noms than any movie since “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” in 2009.

“La La Land,” “Moonlight,” “Manchester by the Sea,” “Arrival” and “Lion” all seem like locks, and their fellow Producers Guild Award nominees “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water” and “Hidden Figures” are clearly in the thick of the race as well.

[...] how many Best Picture slots will the voting process create this year, and which of the remaining contenders will get the passionate supporters to put them at the top of enough ballots?

[...] the preferential ballot could really help “Silence,” despite a lack of broad support for the Scorsese movie.

The DGA nominees were Damien Chazelle for “La La Land,” Barry Jenkins for “Moonlight,” Kenneth Lonergan for “Manchester by the Sea,” Denis Villeneuve for “Arrival” and Garth Davis for “Lion.”

History suggests that one of the four will be replaced on the Oscar list; if so, Davis is the likeliest to be left out, either for an icon like Martin Scorsese (“Silence”) or a hot newcomer like David Mackenzie (“Hell or High Water”).

In recent years, the Directors Branch has thrown lots of curveballs as it has admitted lots of international members, which could make them even more adventurous and help the cases of Maren Ade (“Toni Erdmann”) and Pablo Larrain (“Neruda” or “Jackie”).

[...] it’s hard to imagine them going outside the slate of Best Picture nominees for a directing, which has only happened once in the seven years since the best-pic category expanded.

The fifth could go to the always beloved (but lately, often overlooked) Tom Hanks for “Sully,” or the understated Joel Edgerton for “Loving,” or the late-arriving Michael Keaton for “The Founder” — but we think Oscar voters will agree with SAG and give it to Viggo Mortensen for “Captain Fantastic.”

Once upon a time, Isabelle Huppert seemed like a longshot for Paul Verhoeven’s disturbing “Elle” — but a bunch of critics’ awards, a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe win later, she’s looking like a favorite alongside Emma Stone for “La La Land” and Natalie Portman for “Jackie.”

[...] while Lucas Hedges has a shot at being this year’s Shailene Woodley in “The Descendants” — i.e., the accomplished teen actor who inexplicably gets overlooked — he’s too good in “Manchester by the Sea” to ignore.

Once voters have made room for Viola Davis (“Fences”), Michelle Williams (“Manchester by the Sea”), Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”) and Nicole Kidman (“Lion”), does the last spot go to Octavia Spencer for “Hidden Figures” or Greta Gerwig for “20th Century Women?” I’m guessing it’ll be Spencer.

By moving “Moonlight” here from the Best Original Screenplay category (where it’s been competing at most other awards shows, including the Writers Guild Awards), the Academy gave the category an instant frontrunner.

[...] the Writers Branch is often the most idiosyncratic Academy branch, which could help the likes of “Nocturnal Animals,” “Love & Friendship,” “Elle” and “Loving” over “Hidden Figures” and “Arrival” for the remaining spots.

Other contenders include “Jackie,” “The Lobster,” “Captain Fantastic,” “20th Century Women” and “Zootopia.”

Voters don’t seem to have responded to “Jackie” beyond Natalie Portman‘s performance, so I suspect they’ll go for “Captain Fantastic” and then go for the quirkiness of “The Lobster” over the richly deserving “Zootopia” and “20th Century Women.”

There are a record 27 contenders – and to my mind, only two real locks, “Zootopia” and “Kubo and the Two Strings.”

[...] the committee who votes in this category loves hand-drawn and stop-motion films over CG ones, and that could help an array of smaller movies, from the stop-motion “The Little Prince” and “My Life as a Zucchini” to “April and the Extraordinary World,” “The Red Turtle” and the Japanese films “Miss Hokusai” and “Your Name.”

While “Moana” has a real shot to give Disney two of the five nominees, I’m guessing they ignore almost all of the big-studio productions and stack the deck with smaller, more handmade films.

If so, Ava DuVernay’s “13th” could lose out to the epic “O.J.” and the artful “I Am Not Your Negro,” and also open the door for movies like “Life, Animated,” “Cameraperson,” “Fire at Sea,” “Tower,” “The Ivory Game” and “Weiner.”

The taste of the largely handpicked 40-person committees that watch all nine shortlisted films over three days and then choose the five nominees tends to be adventurous, not safe.

“Toni Erdmann” and “The Salesman” are the two slam-dunk nominees, and “Land of Mine” is solid, tense, mainstream filmmaking that probably packs enough of a punch to make the cut.

“Paradise” is the most stylish and ambitious of the others, while “Tanna” is gorgeous and mysterious, “The King’s Choice” is a solid World War II saga and “My Life as a Zucchini” a touching piece of stop-motion animation.

Will “La La Land” get one nomination, or two? (It entered three songs, but current Oscar rules only allow two nominations per movie.) Two seems right for the musical that is primed to grab more noms than any other movie, which means “City of Stars” for sure, and most likely “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” over the film’s John Legend song “Start a Fire.”

Under the old system of nominating in this category, songs that were performed in their movies had a big advantage, and smaller films could sneak in on the basis of their film clips, which every voter had to watch.

[...] the new system makes it harder for a little film to attract enough attention, which could even hurt Burt Bacharach (“Dancing With Your Shadow” from “Po”) and the terrific songs from John Carney’s “Sing Street.”

Back in the 1990s, the Academy briefly changed the rules in this category because Alan Menken kept winning the Best Original Score Oscar for his scores to Disney musicals.

If Music Branch voters want to get adventurous, there’s “Jackie” and “Moonlight”; if they want traditional, John Williams has a new score to “The BFG”; if they want to split the difference, “Nocturnal Animals” could do the trick.

The American Society of Cinematographers nominated “Arrival,” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Moonlight” and “Silence,” and the ASC usually picks four of the five Oscar nominees.

[...] it’s good to look for best-pic contenders that also have reason for film editors to recognize them: musical numbers (“La La Land”), flashbacks (“Manchester by the Sea,” “Arrival”), unusual structure (“Moonlight”) and hyperkinetic action (“Hacksaw Ridge”).

Other possible nominees include “Jackie,” “Silence,” “The Jungle Book” and “Hell or High Water.”

Are first lady Jackie Kennedy’s clothes so iconic as to bring an Oscar nomination to the designer who re-created them?

The dazzle of “La La Land” will get it nominated here (and in production design) even though the slots are normally reserved for fantasies like “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” and period pieces like “Florence Foster Jenkins,” “Allied,” “Love & Friendship” and, of course, “The Dressmaker.”

In this category, on the other hand, the award goes for the overall sound mix; musicals often get nominated, and “La La Land” director Damien Chazelle‘s last film, “Whiplash,” won.

[...] the real wild card here is “Kubo and the Two Strings,” Laika’s stop-motion epic could become the first animated film ever nominated in this category.

THE SHORTS CATEGORIES

[...] my predictions have been helped by the fact that I’ve seen every movie I’ve mentioned.

In the live-action category, I wouldn’t bet against Kim Magnusson’s film “Silent Nights,” considering that the Danish producer has been nominated five times and won twice.

(And his father has two noms and a win, too.) There’s also some buzz behind the post-apocalyptic “Graffiti,” the Student Oscar winner “Nocturne in Black,” the comic “Timecode” (with a late-minute twist, which Oscar voters love) the Hungarian childhood tale “Sing” and Selim Azzazi’s “Ennemis Interieurs,” about a man caught in a French terrorist investigation.

[...] in the animated-short category, two are from Disney/Pixar (“Piper” and “Inner Workings”), though I don’t think either is among those companies’ best, while “Borrowed Time” was made by moonlighting Pixar artists.

Academy voters like hand-drawn animation, which could help the Student Oscar winner “Once Upon a Line,” and they like personal stories, which covers “Pear Cider and Cigarettes.”