Wonkblog: 4 percent unemployment might be the new 5 percent unemployment

The economy is adding a lot of jobs, but still needs to add a lot more.That's the simple message of the latest jobs report, which was good, but not quite as good as the headline numbers suggest. Now, if you're a glass-half-full kind of person, you'd point out that the economy added 223,000 jobs in June, for a three-month average of 221,000. That's pretty healthy, and more than enough to keep bringing the unemployment rate down. But if you're a glass-half-empty sort, you'd counter that the economy lost 60,000 jobs in revisions to April and May, that the labor force shrank by 432,000 in June, that the share of 25- to 54-year-olds who are actually working hasn't increased at all since the start of the year, and that workers didn't get a raise last month. In the past year, average hourly earnings are up only 2 percent; in a normal economy it would be something like 3.5 percent.Read full article >>