Even if Germany‘s anti-Islam Pegida movement has disappeared from the headlines, the self-styled patriots have not entirely gone away. The movement has become much more radical than it was when it was founded one year ago, and that is leading to more success.Dresden, Germany (dpa) - Police are expecting tens of thousands of people to take to the streets during Monday‘s weekly march through the eastern German city of Dresden by the anti-Islamic Pegida movement as it marks the first anniversary of its foundation.The figures will be swollen by both protesters against the self-styled Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West and new supporters increasingly angered by Germany‘s open-door policy to hundreds of thousands of mainly Muslim refugees.Dresden-based political scientist Werner J Patzelt describes Pegida as the most successful political movement in Germany in the past year."To be mentioned by the chancellor in her New Year‘s speech, also by the president, the vice-chancellor, ministers, and then with such snappy, journalistic vocabulary like ‘vermin,‘ ‘rats‘ or ‘people with hate in their hearts,‘" is in itself a success, he says, even if the commentary is negative.From just a few hundred participants in what it terms a weekly "evening walk" through Dresden, Pegida managed to draw a crowd of over 25,000 at the height of its popularity on January 12."We really did - no exaggeration - double our numbers from week to week, because of political developments and, I must also say this honestly, the media and politicians also played into our hands," says co-founder Rene Jahn, who came together with Lutz Bachmann, Kathrin Oertel and nine other friends to found the organization.Jahn continues: "We complemented each other as a team really well, without knowing it in advance. Of course there were people who polarized like Bachmann, but also people who worked hard, like those that posted on Facebook. And there were people for security. Kathrin and I worked on our external media profile. It was as a result well structured."Jahn stresses that the organization was anti-Islam right from the start.Threats against Bachmann‘s life led police to call off marches, then images emerged of Bachmann posing with a Hitler moustache on Facebook, as well as a series of criminal convictions that came to light, all of which resulted in a massive drop-off in attendance.At the time, Jahn and five other founders left Pegida and formed a new movement, but it garnered little interest.This is the point at which the movement radicalized, according to Frank Richter, who heads Saxony‘s Central State Office for Political Education."Two main themes crystallized, namely anti-asylum and anti-Islam," Richter said. "How these themes were declaimed by speakers in speeches often had an agitational nature."A former member of the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party jumped ship to join Pegida and managed to gain 9.6 per cent of the vote for the position of Dresden mayor in the summer."Radicalization is dangerous," Richter says.Political scientist Patzelt agrees, saying that an anti-refugee atmosphere is fanned at Pegida‘s marches "which is discharged by some individuals in violent acts against refugee hostels."Saxony has seen a dramatic rise in attacks on refugee accommodation and in acts of violence.Another Dresden-based political scientist, Hans Vorlaender, sees the formation of a far-right political power base in the east of Germany."We will find out in the coming weeks whether east Germany - especially the states of Thuringia and Saxony - is perhaps a really unique place and that from here a right-wing populist groundswell arises that then flows into the political space beyond the status of a movement," he says.Mainstream parties in the east also seem to be more willing to express anti-refugee sentiment. Chancellor Agemla Merkel faced an open revolt to her "We can do this" statement from her fellow Christian Democrats at a recent meeting of the party‘s eastern branches.The current official estimate for the number of asylum seekers arriving in Germany this year - mainly fleeing conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan - is 800,000, but many expect the figure to rise well above 1 million, a massive jump from just over 200,000 in 2014.Patzelt warns that unless the "halfway reasonable" people don‘t manage to win back support for the traditional parties, an ugly right-wing populist party will arise from the protest movements.Jahn has started to attend the Pegida marches again, even though he is not part of the steering committee. He says Pegida is currently the only way for Germans to express their protest at the refugee crisis at the moment. "And my opinion is: the more people there, the better."
