New forces and new prospects of Armenian politics

 “The Dud Bomb”

The head of the Union of Armenians of Russia (UAR), Ara Abrahamyan, has recently announced in Yerevan an intention to create a “Program for the Support of Armenia” (a political party, as a matter of fact). The statement has had an effect of a dud bomb in the republic. Given the current domestic political situation in Armenia and the upcoming referendum on constitutional reforms, it appears that Abrahamyan's party will represent and assert Russian interests in Armenia. The Russian millionaire of Armenian descent is creating a new party to run in the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2017.

 “The second place”

Serzh Sargsyan, the key player in Armenia (not only the political field of the country), had been playing up the myth of the pro-Russian stand of the Prosperous Armenia Party established by Robert Kocharyan and formally led by Gagik Tsarukyan for a long time. After that bubble was actually pieced through by Serzh Sargsyan, the place of the “pro-Russian” party, which holds the second place by its parliamentary seats after the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), became vacant. Given the disunity and political inconsistency of the rest of the political forces, creation of the “second party” on the threshold of the parliamentary elections is a reasonable necessity.

Revision of Russian strategy in Armenia

Certainly, not only the mostly pro-Western RPA members but also Moscow realizes that necessity. After Abrahamyan's statement one can suppose that Russia has cardinally revised its strategy of participation in the domestic policy of Armenia, i.e. it is going to replace the improperly controlled pro-Russian citizens of Armenia with Russian oligarchs of Armenian descent, who are totally controlled by the Kremlin.

New agreements

The analysis of the actions of the RPA and ARF Dashnaktsutyun (ARFD) for the past six months suggests that these two forces have reached a full consensus at least on expediency of the constitutional referendum and formation of the first and the second places in the Parliament in 2017. However, the emergence of the new party of the Russian oligarchs may considerably change these plans. This means that the ARFD will have to put up with the third place in the Parliament the way it was during Kocharyan's presidency. The key chess player will volens nolens have to put up with the presence of the new “partner” given that the latter is politically sponsored by the Kremlin.

At the same press conference in Yerevan, Abrahamyan unexpectedly said that his party will be established with the consent of Serzh Sarsgyan. Afterwards he noted that the party will not criticize the authorities or the top officials. Neither will it demand a shift in power. To all appearances, this is a part of his preliminary agreements with the Kremlin and with the President of Armenia.

Russian oligarchs in Armenian politics

Otherwise speaking, the involvement of Ara Abrahamyan and Samvel Karapetyan, another Russian billionaire who has recently purchased the Electric Networks of Armenia, in the political life of Armenia will bring the Armenian political system vertical framework closer to certain circles of the Russian hierarchy. Abrahamyan said he had lost a billion dollars in Libya. It appears that he is financially unable to create and maintain a serious and influential political force without the support of the Tashir Group owner who is the 26th on the Forbes list of Russian billionaires.  

The main assets of Karapetyan, like the ones of Abrahamyan, are in Russia and he just cannot help supporting Abrahamyan in performing the task set by the Kremlin. At the same time, one should not neglect the possible participation of the well-known Russian investment banker and philanthropist   Ruben Vardanyan in the new political project.

Prospects

Thus, by occupying the vacant place after the political liquidation of Gagik Tsarukyan, Abrahamyan's party receives all chances to consolidate the poor part of the Armenian electorate, which makes up 30% of the total population of Armenia, according to the official statistics. For the time being, the party has only one competitor – the RPA, which traditionally bribes the voters. Nevertheless, new political forces, even pro-Western ones (why not), may emerge in Armenia in the run-up to the parliamentary elections of 2017, and the pre-electoral prospects may become even vaguer.