Armenia`s Foreign Intelligence Service forecasts continued tensions in Middle East in 2026
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The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Armenia has released its 2026 report on the country's external risks, projecting that instability across the Middle East will likely persist. Despite the existence of preconditions for a lasting ceasefire, the FIS warns that the risk of renewed hostilities in the Gaza Strip remains high. The report suggests that conflict may resume if Hamas does not take long-term steps toward disarmament. Concurrently, the report notes that Israel may continue to reject solutions proposed by ceasefire guarantors, a stance influenced by Israel's own domestic political developments in 2026.
The FIS also believes that bilateral relations between Israel and Lebanon, as well as between Israel and Syria, will likely remain strained in 2026. "Israel will continue to condition any possible de-escalation and normalization on internal political developments within Syria and Lebanon, strengthening its own strategy of keeping conflicts beyond its borders and justifying proactive measures as essential for national security," the FIS report states.
At the same time, it notes that the instability in Syria will continue. The FIS believes that establishing control over the entire territory of the country, limiting the presence of foreign forces, restoring economic life, and attempts to establish pragmatic relations with neighboring countries will be the primary tasks for the interim government of Syria. "Success in these areas will depend not only on the ability of Syria's diverse ethnic and religious groups to maintain national unity, but also on the security perceptions of other regional government officials who view Syrian stability as vital to their own interests".
Finally, the FIS considers it unlikely that Lebanese authorities will successfully establish a monopoly over military capabilities within their country in 2026. This is expected to increase the likelihood of continued active Israeli operations in Lebanon.