Trump’s Policies Will Make China Great Again

Two certainties have emerged after seven months of Donald Trump’s control of America’s national security policy.  First of all, there is no comprehensive national security policy and no likely candidate in the administration for formulating and managing a comprehensive policy.  Second, the greatest challenge in the national security arena is China—the most important bilateral policy in the entire global arena—and the Trump administration is doing everything it can—whether intentional or not—to make China great and to worsen America’s standing vis-a-vis China.  The dumbing down of the United States continues under Trump, and China’s standing in the global community is becoming stronger.

Over the past 75 years, China has rarely relied on the use of military power—in Korea in the 1950s to stop the advance of U.S. forces, and in 1979 to “teach the Vietnamese a lesson,” which didn’t go well for Chinese forces.  Conversely, the United States has relied on the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to pursue wars that were neither winnable nor affordable (Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq), and to use covert action unsuccessfully in overthrowing democratic governments in Iran, Guatemala, the Congo, and Chile.

U.S. military engagements that were designed to last weeks and months turned into decades of military engagement and occupation.  Nearly every administration claimed it was not engaged in nation-building, but hundreds of billions of dollars were wasted in doing exactly that—nation-building.  And, of course, the ridiculous absurdity of the Iraq War that was going to introduce democracy as a model for the entire Arab world.  No strategic purpose was served by any of these interventions.  And apparently no lessons were learned.

Meanwhile, China has transitioned from one of the poorest nations in the world to the second-largest economy with nuclear-armed forces growing at a record pace.  Over the past 40 years, China has had the world’s fastest-growing economy with annual growth rates that often exceeded 10% a year.  China’s economy grew over five percent in the first half of this year; the U.S. economy expanded by one percent.  Meanwhile, U.S. tariff policy is losing friends around the world.

China’s transformation required a series of reforms in its fiscal, financial, and governance systems, marked by high levels of industrialization and urbanization.  China’s economic success has led to heavy investment in the global South, where the United States is losing influence.  The United States has relied on the projection of military power, while China has not relied on power projection and—unlike the U.S.—avoided getting involved in the decision-making and domestic politics of other nations.

In the new age of technological development, China is in a particularly strong position because of its control of critical minerals, particularly those needed in the West for defense systems.  In getting to this stage, China took full advantage of access to U.S. commodity and financial markets and U.S. knowledge, according to my former colleague at the National War College, Marvin Ott.  Hundreds of thousands of Chinese students have received advanced degrees from America’s most prestigious institutions, including the children of members of the Chinese Politburo.  Trump’s policies are weakening America’s most important educational and research institutions.

The United States is doing nothing to improve relations with China as Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and the undersecretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, a grandson of former CIA director William Colby, pursue strong anti-Chinese policies.  In Trump’s first term, China hawks such as Matt Pottinger and David Feith worsened bilateral relations with China.  As the Trump administration withdraws from important international institutions such as the World Health Organization and UNESCO, China increases its involvement and influence in these organizations.

Fifty years ago, the United States pursued a strategic policy that divided the Soviet Union and China, and forced both Moscow and Beijing to seek better relations with Washington.  Today, the Trump administration is pursuing bellicose policies that are drawing Russia and China closer together.  Donald Trump’s threatening language regarding the movement of strategic nuclear submarines will certainly lead to a closer Sino-Russian strategic dialogue.

Twenty years ago, the United States led China in most global strategic technologies.  Today, the situation is reversed, with China leading the global community in nearly all strategic technologies.  This progress has allowed China to advance its military standing in all areas, including land, sea, air, space, and cyber.  In cutting-edge technology, Chinese research is the most cited in the global arena, including advanced magnets and superconductors, advanced optical communication, AI, and electric batteries.  China is the global leader in environmental technologies—EVs, EV batteries, and solar panels.  Trump’s mantra is “burn, baby, burn” regarding fossil fuels.

Trump is demanding tariffs everywhere on everything.  Instead of working cooperatively with our closest allies in Europe as well as with Japan and South Korea, he has threatened higher and higher tariffs, particularly with our good neighbors—Canada and Mexico.  Instead of persuading China to build automobile and battery plants in the United States, we are taking steps that will lead to more expensive production in the United States.  Instead of restoring federal support for scientific research and recruiting foreign experts, we are subsidizing legacy sectors such as coal and oil.

The “China hawks” in the Trump administration are aggravating and threatening our relations with China at every turn, instead of pursuing opportunities for dialogue and diplomacy in areas of common interest.  The China hawks in the mainstream media, led by Bret Stephens at the New York Times and David Ignatius at the Washington Post echoed the Trump line, asserting that high-level U.S. visits to Taiwan should be so “routine that Beijing forgets to protest.”  Just as Chinese President Xi Jinping stood up to Trump’s tariff policies, Beijing will challenge U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan.

China now finds itself in the strongest international position it has held since the collapse of the Qing dynasty, the last of the imperial dynasties of China, which spanned the years 1644 to 1911. Xi Jinping is the strongest Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, who died in 1976.  The isolationist and erratic policies of Donald Trump will ensure that China and Xi will grow stronger in the coming years.

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