A study conducted by a California university showed that increased immigration enforcement correlates with a decline in Latino employment in that state — which given its heavy Latino population and the focus it has received from ICE seems like a reasonable proxy for many parts of the country. This report found that over 360,000 fewer Latinos Californians were on the job between May and June of this year, a drop that corresponds to heightened immigration enforcement activity in the state.
A paper published in August noted a decline nationally in employment in agriculture, construction and hospitality — three of the Latino-intensive industries we note in our report — and blamed those losses on Trump’s aggressive deportations.
Whether it’s more because of his economic or immigration policies, the fact is that Trump has been bad news for Latino workers. And few Latinos occupy the rarified income levels that have been most helped by the presidential agenda.
The millions of Latinos making less than $53,000 will actually see their costs increasenext year thanks to GOP fiscal policies. To come out ahead next year after the combination of Republican tax cuts and healthcare-cost increases (caused by the GOP’s refusal to extend ACA premium subsidies), families have to be at least in the middle-income range of $53,000 to $91,000. But those folks on average get only about a dollar a day — a dollar easily swallowed by Trump tariff price hikes.
The real money will flow to those with higher incomes. Households with incomes between roughly $360,000 and $920,000 will pocket a net $5,000 or so on average next year. Households with income of about a million dollars and more will on average net out a $28,000 tax-cut bonanza — with those at the very top sopping up the most gravy per household.
Trump campaigned on creating a strong economy and bringing down costs for average Americans, including Latino families. Once in office, his dumbfounding policies have instead stalled hiring, including prominently in the industries most populated by Latino workers. His harsh immigration policies have made the general economic malaise even worse for Latinos. And his tax-and-spending agenda promises to raise costs for the lowest income 40 percent of households, where almost half of all Latino families can be found.
Polling shows Latino voters, who demonstrated a shift towards the Republican party in 2024, are shifting back towards the Democrats, a phenomenon demonstrated in the recent off-year elections. That makes sense since Donald Trump has delivered the opposite of what he promised.
