GSI: lack of clarity and current confusion are untenable

The Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) as a key strategic project was the clear and unequivocal view expressed by the European commissioner for energy, Dan Jorgensen, during his visit to Athens last week.

He said that GSI is “of the highest strategic importance” for Europe, as it will help strengthen electricity interconnections and contribute to lowering energy prices – a top priority. That’s why the European Commission (EC) has backed this project with a grant of €657 million, the highest grant ever for a ‘project-of-common-interest’.

And yet, in spite of three teleconferences with the EC, the developments over the past two weeks were not sufficient to overcome lingering issues.

Nevertheless, both Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Dan Jorgensen expressed confidence that the project will be completed as planned. Greece’s independent transmission system operator (Admie) CEO Manos Manousakis went further, by saying by stating on Wednesday that, despite the challenges, “I am certain that the project will be realised, ending Cyprus’ energy isolation.”

However, the president of the main protagonist in the project, Cyprus, was conspicuously absent from these developments. And there lies the problem.

Lack of clarity from Cyprus government

Despite the fact that Greece and Cyprus signed a bilateral agreement in 2024 to implement the project, the Cyprus government’s position has since been ambivalent. Its two key ministries, energy and finance, are pulling in opposite directions, with President Nikos Christodoulides so far staying out of it. In effect, Cyprus appears to “not know what it wants”.

The main issue here is not just the direction the government plans to take, but the absolute need to have a single unified position, with the two ministries pulling in the same direction – especially publicly – implementing all agreements and avoiding backtracking.

The lack of clarity and current confusion are untenable. Not only is this frustrating progress, but it also feeds uncertainty. No investor or lender will commit to the project while the position of the main protagonist remains unclear.

This is also reflected in Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority’s (Cera) position and the divided public opinion and media coverage of the project.

All in all, the messages coming from Cyprus regarding GSI are contradictory and confusing.

The underlying factor behind the government’s dithering may be the geopolitical risk posed by Turkey’s threats to obstruct the project.

Geopolitical risk

Turkey has been threatening to block the planned route surveys for the GSI power cable, invoking the legally invalid Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, that disregards the international UN Law of the Seas (Unclos) and the rights of islands to EEZs. Neither the EU or the US recognise this memorandum, as it does not abide by international law.

Nevertheless, Turkey makes the ludicrous claim that part of this route passes over an area that it considers to be an extension of its continental shelf.

What makes the situation difficult is that Turkey is threatening to use its navy to block the surveys. Indeed, last July it deployed warships near the survey area, thwarting survey work. This was followed by further incidents in February and March.

However, so far, Turkey has refrained from any physical action confining its position to claims that the cable route infringes its ‘claimed’ continental shelf.

Greek position

Over the last year, Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis has been expressing repeatedly his certainty that GSI will proceed, stating that this is a project co-financed by the EU, “which is protected by international law, in the sense that the survey and installation of the cable do not require permission… The project will move forward at the appropriate time.” He added: “We strongly and seriously support our sovereign rights…Greece will move forward without hesitation.”

More importantly, this week Mitsotakis stressed that the freedom of electricity and data connectivity through submarine cables is non-negotiable, stressing that the Turkish-Libya memorandum “produces no legal effect”.

He went on to say: “We do not accept any uninvited suggestions from Turkey on what to do in areas of Greek sovereignty. The GSI project will be done.”

He added: “as long as it insists on gray zones in the Aegean, Turkey will not enter the EU’s SAFE programme. Greece will not allow that… We can also set conditions for Turkey’s acquisition of Eurofighters…Turkey must realise that it should not seek rapprochement with Europe and at the same time want to block a strategic European project.” A clear and unequivocal position.

Earlier, he also underlined Greece’s support for the India-Europe-Middle East economic corridor (IMEC), and reiterated Greece’s desire to cooperate with the countries participating in this, as a natural gateway to Europe that will include GSI.

So far, Cyprus government’s position has been to state that it would defend its rights under international law, while putting pressure on Greece and the EU to confront the issue. 

Israeli interest

Israel has reconfirmed its interest to join GSI. Following the war with Iran and the attack on its power plants, Israel sees the value of GSI in providing additional energy security. It also sees political and economic benefits through direct exports of excess energy to Europe.

During Mitsotakis’ recent visit to Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured him that GSI will be included in IMEC – which is an EU and US-backed initiative – and that, if necessary, Israel would seek US support for the project.

In addition, Cyprus and Israel have agreed to finalise a deal for GSI by 2025. By the end of July, Admie will submit a complete dossier to the regulatory authorities of both countries to facilitate a joint decision on the CBCA (Cross-Border Cost Allocation).

GSI will go ahead

Given the recent statements by Dan Jorgensen and Mitsotakis, it is now more likely that the project will go ahead. After all, in spite of the persisting lack of clarity in Cyprus, the government has already made the political decision – having entered into a ‘framework of understanding’ signed by the energy ministers of Cyprus and Greece – committing Cyprus to completion of the project.

Despite Turkey’s attempts to muddy the waters by announcing intent to proceed with an electrical interconnection with Cyprus occupied territories, this has no bearing on GSI.

However, there is concern in Cyprus with the aggressive approach taken by Admie in pursuing its demands. This is considered to be counterproductive and it antagonises those involved and public opinion. A less aggressive approach could achieve better results.

News on Friday indicates that Cera is reviewing the data provided to it by Admie for payments it has made so far. It confirmed on Wednesday its willingness to complete the payment process, for the income Admie is entitled to against approved, incurred expenses, by next week. Its Greek counterpart has already given its approval.

These developments will give a boost to the project.

Dr Charles Ellinas, @CharlesEllinas, is a councilor at the Atlantic Council