GSK sets sights on £40bn sales by 2031 as US tariffs loom

GSK (GSK.L) expects to deliver annual sales and profit growth towards the top end of its forecasts after beating second-quarter expectations earlier this week, in a boost to its efforts to fuel growth despite product development and tariff challenges.

The British drugmaker is hoping to reach annual sales of over 40 billion pounds ($53.44 billion) by 2031, even as it faces potential pharmaceutical tariffs and drug pricing pressure in the world-leading US market.

“We’re very well positioned and continue to be part of investments so that our portfolio in the US is more and more supplied from the US,” CEO Emma Walmsley told journalists.

She added that GSK was also in talks with President Donald Trump’s administration, which is pushing drugmakers to cut prices, but offered few details.

The US pharmaceuticals market – worth around $635 billion – makes up slightly over half of GSK’s sales and is central to its growth plans.

GSK said it had accounted for levies already implemented by Washington and expected tariffs on Europe’s exports under a new US-EU trade deal, as well as possible duties resulting from a US investigation into pharmaceutical imports.

It expects 2025 revenue to increase between 3 per cent and 5 per cent, with core profit per share growth of 6 per cent to 8 per cent at constant currency rates.

EYES ON DRUG DEVELOPMENT

GSK is focusing on expanding its product pipeline as it faces rising competition and declining sales of top drugs and vaccines.

It expects five new major approvals this year.

While second-quarter turnover growth of 6 per cent to nearly 8 billion pounds and earnings of 46.5 pence per share beat analyst estimates, investors are focused on GSK’s pipeline as it awaits a final US approval verdict on cancer drug Blenrep.

Analysts say a rejection might force GSK to rethink its 2031 sales target as it is also bracing for patent expirations in its HIV portfolio.

The company’s HIV business, as well as specialty medicines, respiratory, and oncology divisions, recorded double-digit revenue growth in the quarter.

But Barclays analysts cautioned HIV sales growth would be slower in the second half due to the timing of stock sales and availability.

GSK expects currency headwinds to be a drag of 4 per cent and 7 per cent on 2025 sales and profit growth, respectively, on a reported basis.