Will their Emmy bubble burst? 10 fringe contenders that could surprise — or get snubbed

With only one day left until Emmy nominations are announced, the bubble is about to burst for some of the shows and performers jockeying for contention. While our Gold Derby odds have held steady for the expected nominees — from Hacks and Severance to Adolescence and The Traitors — there are some close-to-call races that could flip on a dime.

As we wait for Harvey Guillén and Brenda Song to announce the nominations on Tuesday morning, we took a snapshot of our day-before leaderboards and picked 10 on the bubble nominees that could surprise — or get snubbed.

What We Do in the Shadows (Best Comedy Series)

FX's much-adored vampire comedy finally broke into the Best Comedy Series race last year. While the odds are currently predicting a repeat performance for its sixth and final season, confidence seems to be shrinking — and not just because of its Apple TV+ competitor. Shadows currently has a 62 percent shot at taking the eighth slot, but Netflix's freshman year series The Four Seasons is waiting in the wings ready and willing to drive a stake through its heart.

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Best Comedy Actress)

After being blanked by voters for Only Murders's first two seasons, Gomez joined fellow leads Steve Martin and Martin Short in the nominees circle as part of show's Season 3 haul of 21 nominations. But the odds have her just behind Poker Face's Natasha Lyonne for the fifth Best Comedy Actress slot, with a mere 16 percent gap between them. Cards on the table: Gomez could very easily make up that ground and score the winning hand. And even if she folds, she'll have another shot for Season 5.

Steven Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Best Comedy Actor)

Not for nothing, but Gomez's costar is facing his own elimination. Martin has been nominated twice before for his Only Murders role, in Season 1 and Season 3. But he missed the cut in Season 2 and is being predicted to also sit out Season 4 as Shrinking's Jason Segel surges ahead with a 30 percent lead for the fifth spot. Still, Martin's popularity within the industry can't be discounted; we'd feel like a real jerk if we declared this race over.

Megan Stalter, Hacks (Best Comedy Supporting Actress)

There's no such thing as too much Megan Stalter — no matter what critics say about her new Lena Dunham-created show. The Hacks fan-favorite has yet to be recognized with an Emmy nod for her scene-stealing supporting role, but a fresh round of Too Much-related publicity could be the engine that powers her past The Studio's Kathryn Hahn — whose own odds have stayed flat, while Stalter has been rising — and onto the final list of seven nominees.

Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons (Best Comedy Supporting Actor)

Despite its impressive star power, Netflix's The Four Seasons has largely been a hanger-on when it comes to acting race predictions. Domingo gives the show's best performance and, not coincidentally, also has the best odds among the cast, holding steady behind Bowen Yang as a possible spoiler for the Saturday Night Live star's fourth nomination. Some credit should go to his Best Actor campaign for Sing Sing, which kept him in the public eye during the first half of 2025.

Paradise (Best Drama Series)

Sterling K. Brown's Hulu series made a big splash when it debuted in January, but time — and a little show called Squid Game — has not been kind to its Emmy odds. Paradise is outside of the Top 8, thanks largely to a big surge for Season 2 of Netflix's Korean-language hit. But it should be noted that Squid Game's gain isn't coming from expert predictors, who still have Paradise ahead. We'll soon see which bubble stays intact.

Choi Seung-hyun, Squid Game (Best Drama Supporting Actor)

A similar Squid situation is playing out in the Best Drama Supporting Actor odds, where user predictions have powered former K-popper Choi (aka the villainous rapper Thanos) past White Lotus resident Patrick Schwarzenegger for the seventh spot. Should Emmy voters follow suit, it would be quite the surprise upset — and a reminder that Squid Game will be back next year as well.

Beau Bridges, Matlock (Best Drama Guest Actor)

Never mind Ben — Beau is back. A 3 percent gap is all that separates Bridges and Andor's Ben Mendelsohn for the sixth guest actor slot. The Hollywood veteran will have a more regular presence on Matlock in Season 2, and that news could give him an extra bump in the home stretch. Now's the time for Mendeloshn to use his Imperial connections and tap into some of Darth Vader's Dark Side energy.

The Gorge (Best TV Movie)

A few weeks back, we spotlighted The Gorge's sudden surge among the TV movie nominees. While those projections have cooled since, the Apple TV+ thriller could still surprise, particularly if current fifth-place holder Am I Okay? continues to dip. The star power of Miles Teller and Anya Taylor-Joy can't hurt.

Kristen Kish, Top Chef (Best Reality Host)

Kish landed her first-ever nomination last year as Top Chef post-Padma Lakshmi host, but the odds currently have her missing out on a repeat performance in favor of the Queer Eye team. Given the show's overall Emmy popularity though, there's a good chance voters will say "Yes, chef!" to her return.