The Habs Don’t Have to Rush a Decision on Mike Matheson

As soon as the Habs acquired Noah Dobson back on draft day, speculation about Mike Matheson’s future with the team started up with the thought that they need to make a move quickly.  That’s not really the case; they can easily drag this situation out into the season.

Last season, Lane Hutson’s emergence certainly cut into Matheson’s offensive production.  The rookie eventually took over anchoring Montreal’s number one power play unit and became their go-to player in late-game trailing situations.  The end result was Matheson seeing his point total dip in half from 2023-24 but some of that was the veteran just reverting more toward his career norms as well.

That’s especially notable from a trade value standpoint.  While some might have thought Matheson’s peak value might have come last summer when he had 62 points, teams generally don’t overpay for an outlier season.  I’ll swing back to this thought in a bit.

With Hutson in the fold and Dobson now joining him as one of the better offensive blueliners in the NHL, Matheson’s offensive profile seems likely to dip once again.  While Matheson anchored the second power play unit last season, that’s far from a guarantee unless there are injuries or one of the two units goes with two defencemen.  And with two high-end point men, going with two blueliners on one of the waves isn’t a bad idea.

But assuming that doesn’t happen, Matheson’s output could drop back into the 20s, a mark he has surpassed in his first three seasons with the Habs.  So, should they sell before his production drops again?

Not necessarily.  While teams aren’t going to buy on the high outlier season, the Habs aren’t going to sell on the low outlier either, at least for value equal to the dip in offensive numbers.  If they were to move him in-season, they’d be reminding teams of the context behind that drop and expecting a return more commensurate with his normal level.  In other words, value relative to his play from last season.

Basically, if they move him now, his trade value will be based on last season and if they move him in-season, his trade value will also be based on 2024-25.  There’s no rush as the potential change in valuation is going to be pretty minimal.

So, what about the other side of the coin?  If the plan isn’t to trade him (and public indications from management suggest that is the case), what about the possibility of a contract extension?  Matheson is entering the final year of his contract, one that carries a $4.875 million cap charge, a deal that went from being pricey for Pittsburgh to a very team-friendly one for Montreal.

However, there are two lefties either signed (Kaiden Guhle) or under team control (Hutson) for the next six years.  Assuming that David Reinbacher eventually makes it to the NHL, he and Dobson will hold down the top two spots on the right.  Is it worth paying Matheson a market-value contract to anchor a third pairing?

I’m not sure that’s a question management truly knows the answer to just yet.  It’d be a great luxury to have, essentially giving the Canadiens five top-four defenders in time, an element a lot of contenders have.  But with Hutson and Ivan Demidov expected to land significant second contracts and maybe, just maybe, an impactful second-line centre gets added at some point, there is going to be a limit on expensive contracts that this team can afford, even in a rapidly escalating cap environment.

Personally, I think there’s a number that the Habs are willing to sign Matheson at.  AFP Analytics suggests a four-year deal at just over $7 million per season is reasonable but I suspect that’s higher than what the Canadiens are willing to go with.  If Matheson is willing to sign at the price tag Kent Hughes wants, I could see an extension happening at some point but probably not this summer.

Having said that, there isn’t much of a case to make for Matheson to sign an extension, unless he really wants to keep playing at home with this group.  (And that’s a valid consideration but not one that would maximize his earnings.)  If the goal is to get the big contract, he’s probably going to need to wait out the season and hit the open market.  If there’s one thing we learned from this year’s UFA class, a top-four defenceman with a pulse is going to get paid in a big way.  And even if he has a quieter year this coming season, Matheson will be viewed as a viable top-four defender.

When a team makes a big splash the way the Canadiens did with the Dobson acquisition last month, there’s a tendency to want to find out what the next domino to fall is.  That’s perfectly understandable and believe me, I’m intrigued as well.  And thinking that Matheson is the domino makes logical sense.

That said, there’s nothing that says when that domino has to fall.  Or, for that matter, if that domino has to fall at all.  While expectations for 2025-26 are certainly higher than they were a year ago, they’re far from being at a fever pitch.  Most fans and pundits realize that they’re still on the way up and not truly a contender.  There’s no pressure heading into the season in that sense; they can wait and assess the situation before making a decision.

In a perfect world, I suspect the Habs would like to keep Matheson, a player who is now their most experienced defender by a country mile, in the fold.  But how will he fare with a reduced role again, one that sees him becoming more of a shutdown player?  And will he be content in that role?  I don’t think we know the answer to those just yet.

So, why do anything with him just yet?  His trade value isn’t going to change significantly between now and the trade deadline and at this point, waiting on an extension makes sense for both sides.  Unless the ideal trade presents itself (perhaps for a middleman to fill a certain top-six role?), the smartest play here might very well be to keep Matheson and see how things go from there.  That domino might still fall but there’s no rush for it to happen.