Fantasy Focus: Cole Caufield
After an impressive 2023-24 campaign, Cole Caufield took another small step forward last season. Will that upward trajectory continue for another year?
2024-25
Goal-scorers are generally streaky and Caufield is no exception. He certainly got off to a hot start offensively last season, scoring 10 goals in 11 games in October to get out to the early league lead. However, those were followed up by a November stretch that saw him score in just one of ten games at one point and a nine-game stretch in December where he only scored once. That largely undid the quick start to his season.
The streakiness continued to start 2025. He scored in five of six games to start the new year before having a five-game goalless stretch, his longest run without a goal in the second half of the season.
If there’s one area to be critical of Caufield when it came to last season’s production, it would be his struggles down the stretch. At a time when the Habs were fighting for their playoff lives, he wound up slumping a little bit. Over the final month of the season, he had just four goals and five assists in 16 games. That wasn’t terrible production but he was fighting it a bit.
Fortunately, that wasn’t the case in the playoffs. Caufield scored in three of five games to lead Montreal in that regard. After being more of a secondary producer in the 2021 playoffs (four goals in 20 outings), he finished up his year on a high note and showed he can still score with tighter playoff checking. That has to be encouraging for management and the coaching staff moving forward.
Regular Season Stats: 82 GP, 37-33-70, +9, 14 PIMS, 10 PPG, 8 GWG, 239 shots, 18:05 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 5 GP, 3-1-4, -6, 0 PIMS, 2 PPG, 0 GWG, 24 shots, 19:35 ATOI
4-Year Averages
(Since Caufield played just ten games late in 2020-21, it’s not really relevant for full-season averages.)
GP: 69
Goals: 29
Assists: 25
Points: 54
+/-: -7
PIMS: 11
PPG: 8
GWG: 5
Shots: 225
2025-26 Role
Given that the top line of Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky spent most of last season together, it’s reasonable to think they’ll have a long leash to start next season as well. However, with Ivan Demidov now in the mix and possibly a healthier Patrik Laine, Martin St. Louis has some more winger options to deploy in more offensive situations. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Caufield dropped to the second line periodically when the lines get shaken up instead of Slafkovsky but for the most part, the spot he has become accustomed to will be the spot he’ll primarily have once again at five-on-five.
For most of last season and in the playoffs, Caufield was in his usual one-time spot on the off-wing on the power play. I think that will still be the case more often than not but I also expect Montreal’s man advantage to be a little less static so he might not always be in that spot. Laine could also see some time on the top unit and they both can’t be in that spot. Either way, the power play minutes are going to be there while penalty killing time just isn’t going to happen unless they’re shorthanded late and down by one (and even then, I’m not sure that he’d be the one out there). From a role standpoint, Caufield’s is one of the easier ones to predict.
Projected Stats
Last year, I noted that Caufield’s shooting percentage would likely bounce back toward his career average after a down year on that front but that a dip in shot attempts would mitigate that somewhat. I certainly didn’t bat 1.000 on my predictions last year but that one held true. Caufield has now carried a shooting percentage of at least 12% in four of his five NHL seasons (or three of four if you want to discount his abbreviated rookie year). Nearly 300 games into his career, I’m inclined to say that he’s someone who is going to carry an above-average shooting percentage for a sniper.
It’s also worth noting that Caufield outproduced his expected goals (per MoneyPuck) last season. But that’s not an outlier; he has beaten it in each of his four full NHL campaigns and usually not by a little bit. Again, this has happened long enough to call it a trend.
With Demidov in the mix for a full season now and, hopefully, a healthy year for Laine, Caufield might not be as much of the focal point from a goal perspective. And as Slafkovsky starts to shoot more (we hope), some of that might come at Caufield’s expense so a significant uptick in shot volume might not be likely. But after two years of largely similar numbers, there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t land somewhere close to that production again, barring injury. A tiny dip in the context of a second line carrying more of the load wouldn’t be surprising, nor worrisome.
Given that it’s only early August, ADP data isn’t available but there are multiple rankings out there that have him in the top 60. That feels a little early for him in an offence that feels like it won’t be as top-heavy as Montreal’s was last season. But quality right wingers are hard to get in fantasy, as are 30-goal scorers so he’s someone that should be going somewhere in the back third of the top 100. Give him a boost for leagues that have a higher weighting for goals although he’ll need to be lowered in the rankings for leagues that count hits and penalty minutes.
GP: 79
Goals: 33
Assists: 35
Points: 68
+/-: +6
PIMS: 14
PPG: 8
GWG: 6
Shots: 232