Fantasy Focus: Juraj Slafkovsky

After an impressive sophomore season, expectations were high for Juraj Slafkovsky heading into last year.  But, after his output basically stagnated, what should be expected from him as he begins his new contract?

2024-25

After averaging just under a point per game in the final quarter of last season, the hope was that Slafkovsky would pick up where he left off.  That didn’t exactly happen.  Instead, while he picked up some secondary assists, he only scored twice in the first 27 games of the season.  It’s fair to say that expectations were higher considering he signed a big-money, eight-year deal just a few months earlier.

However, as was the case in his sophomore year, Slafkovsky got better as the season went on.  And, as we also saw the year before, once he got some confidence, he became a lot more assertive.  And when he gets more assertive, he becomes much more of a difference-maker.  And, well, you get the point.

Over the first three months of the season, Slafkovsky was barely averaging three shot attempts per game.  Once the calendar turned to 2025, that average jumped to just under four.  If we isolate only March and April, the average moved to over 4.5 attempts per game (and even with that, he was still well below his 2023-24 attempt total).  More shots led to more goals which led to Montreal’s top line being much more impactful down the stretch, helping to carry them into the playoffs.  While Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield got a lot of the attention, Slafkovsky played a big role in that success.

While the Canadiens didn’t exactly have a great playoff run, Slafkovsky didn’t look out of place.  The shot attempts jumped up to six per game, he scored twice, and his line was fantastic from an overall possession perspective.  As one of the few players making his postseason debut, his performance was encouraging, small sample size notwithstanding.

Jumping back to the regular season briefly, one element that was notable was the lack of progression in power play points.  Only 11 of his 51 points came with the man advantage and while 40 even-strength points isn’t half-bad, he had the second-highest power play ATOI with Nick Suzuki being the only one with more.  I suspect they were expecting more from him on that front.

Regular Season Stats: 79 GP, 18-33-51, +4, 45 PIMS, 5 PPG, 1 GWG, 133 shots, 17:21 ATOI
Playoff Stats: 5 GP, 2-0-2, -4, 4 PIMS, 1 PPG, 0 GWG, 15 shots, 19:52 ATOI

3-Year Averages

GP: 67
Goals: 14
Assists: 23
Points: 37
+/-: -9
PIMS: 44
PPG: 4
GWG: 1
Shots: 109

2025-26 Role

Slafkovsky spent most of last season on Montreal’s top line, a trio that had a lot of success.  The obvious inclination will be to keep them together heading into training camp where they’ll have a long leash.

However, there are more winger options than there were last season.  Zach Bolduc gives Montreal another winger with some sandpaper that can be a complementary fit on a skill line.  If he’s going well and the lines need to be shaken up, that’s an option.  Ivan Demidov could also be moved up to make a higher-skilled top trio as well.  And, who knows, Patrik Laine could start strong and play his way into the mix as well.  It’s Slafkovsky’s spot to lose but he will have more competition this time around, giving Martin St. Louis options he didn’t otherwise have last season.

Then there’s the power play.  As noted earlier, Slafkovsky wasn’t much of a contributor on the man advantage despite getting a lot of power play time.  Now, Demidov is in the mix while Bolduc was a solid contributor in St. Louis with the man advantage despite not playing on the power play all that much.  I’m nowhere near as confident in his ability to hold down a spot on the top wave as I am in his ability to stay on the top line at even strength, especially if Laine winds up back on the top unit as well after losing the spot to Demidov in the playoffs.  It would be surprising to see him second on the team in power play ATOI again this coming season.

As for killing penalties, that would be a surprise.  Honestly, I think they’d like him to at least be serviceable at it down the road but given how careful they have been with him at times, I doubt that will come in 2025-26.

Projected Stats

Last summer, I projected a big jump for Slafkovsky, assuming he’d play somewhere close to the level he finished off 2023-24 at.  That, coupled with sustained improvement from his linemates would allow him to take that next step forward.  And as we saw, that didn’t happen.

While I’m not projecting him to stay at that level for a third year in a row, I’m also not expecting to see a big jump in output either.  He has talked about wanting to play more like Brady Tkachuk but he has only been able to do that sporadically.  At 21, the game-to-game consistency isn’t going to be there so it’s okay that the physicality and aggression aren’t high-end every game.

But my concern is that Slafkovsky will spend the first half of next season being a bit too deferential to Caufield and Suzuki again and that it will take some time to rediscover the assertiveness that made him much more impactful in the second half of 2024-25.  In other words, a slow-ish start followed by a big improvement could very well be the curve once again.

From a fantasy perspective, Slafkovsky has some variance.  For leagues that count hits, he could be very valuable.  A 60-or-so-point winger with a shot at cracking 200 hits is hard to find.  It might make him a top-100 player, even.  But if it’s strictly a points-based league or one with shots as a category, he probably needs to be dropped a couple of rounds at least in the rankings.  For pools, he’s one of Montreal’s bigger wild cards this season.

GP: 80
Goals: 22
Assists: 36
Points: 58
+/-: +7
PIMS: 50
PPG: 4
GWG: 2
Shots: 141