Here are some important reasons why the Tories haven't got 2020 sewn up just yet

In politics, what appears to be happening is almost always the opposite of what is actually happening. The illusion is especially powerful in August, when the rhythms are less familiar than the rest of the year. During these long summer days, the prevailing narrative is that the Government commands the stage and will do so for at least 10 years. Recently, I had a conversation with a Conservative MP – a bright member of the new intake – in which he wondered whether his party might rule for as long as it did after 1979. As a form of confirmation, one commentator tweeted last week that “nobody” believes the Conservatives could lose next time. The entire media focus is on the Labour Party, staging the most extraordinary leadership contest in the history of leadership contests. Any passing references to the Government note only its authoritative dominance.