Will avocado prices go up after inspection pause in Mexico?

The U.S. has paused avocado inspections from Mexico's top exporting state after employees were assaulted.

(NewsNation) — There's bad news for guacamole lovers: The U.S. could soon see fewer avocados coming from Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has suspended inspections of avocados and mangoes imported from the Mexican state of Michoacan after two employees were assaulted and temporarily held by assailants.

Michoacan is Mexico’s biggest exporter of avocados and also one of the most dangerous regions in the country. The multibillion-dollar avocado industry has attracted the attention of drug cartels who are known to extort growers for money, threatening their families with kidnapping or death.

The employees, who worked for the USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), are no longer being held.

"To guarantee the safety of our agricultural inspection teams, APHIS has suspended the avocado and mango inspections in Michoacan until these security problems have been resolved,” U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar said in a statement.

It's unclear how long the pause on inspections will last, but a lengthy delay could eventually lead to higher prices in the U.S., Daniel Sumner, a professor of agriculture economics at UC Davis, told the Los Angeles Times.

“If it goes away quickly it could be a little blip in the market,” he said. “If it lasts several weeks, we will likely see many fewer avocados.”

Last year, the U.S. imported a record 2.78 billion pounds of fresh avocados, 89% of which came from Mexico, according to the USDA.

The good news for fans of avocado toast is that the pause won't entirely block avocado shipments to the U.S. because another Mexican state, Jalisco, is now an exporter. Avocados that were already in transit from Michoacan also won't be affected.

This is the second time the U.S. government has suspended inspections of Mexican avocados in recent years. The first pause, in February 2022, came after a U.S. plant safety inspector in Michoacan received a threatening message. The halt was lifted after roughly a week.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.