Tropical Storm Cristobal spins in southern Gulf, impacts to Acadiana likely

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed yesterday and continues to spin slowly within the Bay of Campeche today. This system is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours as it makes its first landfall in southern Mexico, bringing devastating flooding to the region. At the end of the week, Cristobal will begin its track northward towards the U.S. Gulf Coast where it will begin to pick up speed.

Forecast uncertainty becomes higher as we head into the weekend. Tropical Storm Cristobal should start to move northward towards the U.S. Gulf Coast quickly, where it will further strengthen and organize. Models are in slightly better agreement today that Lousiana will be the likeliest to see landfall Sunday night into Monday morning. The National Hurricane Center Forecast cone shows the center of the cone moving into St. Mary Parish very early Monday morning. Further adjustments to this cone will happen over the next several days.

We are thinking the highest impacts and greatest flooding threat from Cristobal will be east of the center of rotation. Areas across the Gulf shores area could see over a foot of rainfall from this event. In Acadiana, we are expecting tropical storm force winds of 30-70 mph possible. Gusts could reach hurricane force around 80 mph at times. Most of Acadiana will receive 2-5″ inches of rain but isolated higher amounts are possible. Dependent on the exact track of Cristobal as it makes landfall could decrease or increase the flash flooding threat for Acadiana. Coastal flooding with a storm surge is expected for some of the state too.

Keep it tuned to KLFY throughout the week as we’ll be providing updates as needed.

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