TROPICAL UPDATE 10 am: Tropical Storm Sally could threaten Louisiana by Tuesday

LAFAYETTE, La. (KLFY) – The Weather Service has issued hurricane and storm surge warnings
for parts of the northern Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Sally strengthens off
the west coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Sally strengthened again Sunday morning and now has maximum
sustained wind speeds of 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center says the storm
should strengthen to a hurricane on Monday.

As of 5 a.m., Sally is about 115 miles west of Port Charlotte, Florida and
moving west-northwest at about 13 mph. The tropical storm is forecast to
continue moving in that direction until it slows down and makes a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday. The NHC says Sally will move over the Gulf of
Mexico Sunday and Monday before approaching the north-central Gulf Coast late
Monday or Tuesday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Vermilion, Iberia, St. Mary, and St. Martin Parishes. This area could see wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph late Monday and Tuesday. Expect scattered power outages, toppled trees, and some roof damage in these areas.

Rainfall projections are 1-3 inches for south central Louisiana. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tides on Monday.

Be aware that the trees left standing after Hurricane Laura are quite vulnerable. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph could blow down some of these trees and/or damage tarps on our roofs.

Storm Surge Warning in effect for:

• Port Fourchon, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
  Border
• Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Lake Borgne

Hurricane Warning in effect for:

• Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi
• Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
  metropolitan New Orleans

Storm Surge Watch in effect for:

• Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida
  Border

Hurricane Watch in effect for:

• East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

Tropical Storm Warning in effect
for:

• East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass

Tropical Storm Watch in effect for:

• Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River, Florida

Hurricane watches have been put up from grand isle, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border.

Tropical storm wind probabilities increase as you go further eastward into southeastern Louisiana.

Effects across acadiana will be minimal from this system if it stays on the current track.

Latest european model shows the possibility of 10-20 inches of rainfall for southeastern louisiana, mississippi, and alabama.

We currently have five entities we are watching in the tropics.

Forecast for tonight–rain ending–partly cloudy late.

Forecast for tomorrow–scattered storms likely–highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Seven day forecast shows a wet pattern continuing through the next seven days.

Heavy rain will be the biggest threat from this system, but a surge and wind threat could now be in the mix as well. Yesterday, models had a much weaker system and much more dry air across the Gulf. Now the system is initialized stronger in the model fields, so it’s able to wall off the dry air and wrap up into a stronger system before landfall on Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center is calling for a category one hurricane to make landfall across southeastern Louisiana/coastal Mississippi on Tuesday. This forecast seems reasonable, although a category two cannot be ruled out. Wind shear could increase slightly once it approaches the northern Gulf coast, which could limit the strengthening process.

A HURRICANE WATCH has been issued across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama–from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. Tropical storm force wind probabilities appear to be around 20-40% for Acadiana, based off the latest track from the NHC. If this current track holds, effects from this system should be minimal across Acadiana, most likely limited to a few squally thunderstorms with embedded wind gusts. The majority of the flooding rains will be near and east of where the center makes landfall. Model projections show the possibility of 10-20 inches of rainfall in these areas, which would be a substantial flooding event.

We’ll have to continue to watch for subtle changes in track as parts of eastern Acadiana are still in the cone of uncertainty. As it stands now, I feel confident Acadiana will see little impacts from Sally and the chance of a drastic track change is small.

GULF DISTURBANCE: A disturbance just south of the Louisiana coastline is increasing our storm chances today and tomorrow. This disturbance has a “low” chance for development as it generally works west and later southwest across the western Gulf of Mexico. Models do not currently show much from this system as it gets pushed southward into the Bay of Campeche early next week.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #12 has formed across the eastern Atlantic. Models are bullish with this system and make this a hurricane through the next few days. Good news is that this system should stay an Atlantic system and not threaten the United States.