Potential Cyclone 26, soon to be Delta, could be a threat to the Gulf Coast later this week

Hurricane season just won't quit as it now appears we could once again have two named systems in the Gulf this week.

First, Tropical Storm Gamma continues to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico. It's currently being impacted by southwesterly shear and this could weaken the storm through the next 24-48 hours. High pressure will build across the southeastern U.S., which is expected to turn the cyclone west and later southwest, driving it down into the Bay of Campeche through the next five days.

Little change in intensity is anticipated while the cyclone is in the Bay of Campeche. Thereafter, a weakness in the ridge, caused by Potential Tropical Cyclone #26/Delta, could begin to turn the cyclone back northwest/north by the weekend. Another possibility is that Gamma dissipates over the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan peninsula by the end of the week. Some models, especially the latest GFS model shows that possibility. We'll continue to monitor Gamma closely through the week ahead.

Possibly of more concern is Potential Tropical Cyclone #26, which has formed over the Caribbean this afternoon. The system is not yet designated a tropical cyclone, but this is expected to occur through the next 24-36 hours. If it does get a name, it would be Delta. Models have come in more aggressive today, developing future Delta into a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane over the central Gulf by mid-week. A few days ago, it appeared an upper-level trough could create a high shear environment once the system is in the central Gulf, however, models have trended away from that today, creating a favorable upper-level environment over the cyclone through Thursday.

It's expected to move primarily on a northwest heading through the next 72-96 hours. Thereafter, the storm is expected to round the edge of the ridge of high pressure, causing a move to the north/northeast by Friday and Saturday. This will be a game of angles, meaning how far west the system gets before making the turn will be very important in regards to who eventually gets the landfall. The National Hurricane Center currently has a category two hurricane approaching the southeastern Louisiana coast by Friday, but this is a 5-day forecast and plenty of uncertainty exists. Usually troughs come in stronger than predicted in October, so hopefully we will see more shifts to the east versus shifts to the west with this one. We'll have to continue to monitor this system very closely through the week ahead.