Severe weather risk tomorrow, what you need to know
This is a full detailed analysis of what could go down through the day tomorrow.
An upper-level low will strengthen as it approaches eastern Texas tomorrow. This will help a surface low to spawn across southeastern Texas during the morning hours. This surface low will get stronger as it moves northward through the day. This low will locally enhance the winds in the atmosphere at both ground-level and in the mid-levels. At ground-level, winds could be in the 20-30 mph range, even away from storms, with gusts of 35 mph.
Storms will begin across eastern Texas during the morning hours, slowly moving northeastward during the day. Storms look to arrive across Acadiana during the afternoon hours, steadily moving eastward through the day and organizing in a quasi-linear structure.
Wind shear will be very high in the atmosphere with winds both increasing and turning with height. This means storms will be capable of gaining rotation, which means a tornado potential. On top of rotating winds, winds will also be very strong in the mid-levels. There appears to be a dry pocket of air aloft, which can sometimes cool the air, bringing the stronger winds down to the surface. For this reason, a damaging wind threat will certainly manifest later during the afternoon and evening, especially if storms can grow more linear in nature. Storms that manage to get going early in the day could also be hail producers, as there is a pocket of cold air aloft, which could be supportive for hail producing storms, especially along the northward moving warm front.
Overall, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has us hatched in for a level 3 risk, which is designated as "Enhanced." This is level 3 out of 5, meaning severe weather events could be more "enhanced" meaning more widespread. Tornadoes that do manage to form could be a little stronger, possibly EF2-EF3 strength. Prime-time to see storms will be from Noon until the early evening hours. None of this means severe weather will occur with 100% certainty, but it does mean the atmosphere tomorrow will be more than capable of producing the ingredients for severe storms, so always respect the threat!
THINGS YOU NEED TO DO....Of course download the KLFY weather app and get it tuned to KLFY for the latest information throughout the day. Also, it's important not to panic. Strong wording is often used during severe weather events, which can be very worrisome and cause anxiety, but if you heed warnings and take precautions to protect you and your family, you'll be fine! Chances of getting injured or killed from severe weather in Acadiana is very low. Often times if we do see injuries or deaths from storms here it's people riding out storms in mobile homes, especially ones not anchored, or from large trees that fall onto houses. Best thing you can do is use your judgement....if you do not feel safe in your home, or live in a mobile home, stay with a neighbor, friend, or family member. If your home is surrounded by large trees, which you feel could be prone to falling during high winds, take the same advice. Good news is these storms should be done by the time we're ringing in the new year!