Warming trend near-term, Arctic plunge late next week?
A chilly night is anticipated tonight with readings falling into the lower 40s as clouds slowly clear out. With northwest winds in the 6-14 mph range, wind chills will easily be in the 30s for tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow afternoon mostly sunny skies are expected. This will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 60s.
A warming trend is expected through Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday--as southwesterly flow increases in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This is in response to an approaching upper-level trough, which drives down an Arctic cold front by the middle parts of next week. We'll still be south of this front through Thursday, so expect warm weather, but also expect increasing rain chances. Rain chances could be near 40-60% Wednesday and Thursday.
Beyond this timeframe, the forecast gets very challenging. Models disagree on when the Arctic front arrives across Acadiana and how strong it will be. This is typical when you're talking about a forecast, which is still 6-8 days out. Earlier this week, there was social media buzz about winter precipitation across Acadiana. Models have since dropped this possibility, mainly due to models driving the Arctic blast in as one main piece, instead of multiple pieces. This is one aspect that both the GFS and European actually agree on. They do not agree on the timing of the front however. The GFS drives the front through here by Friday, plunging temperatures into the weekend, while the European model keeps the front hung up to the north, only giving us a taste of the cold air. The GFS forecast has been pretty consistent, while the European model has flipped in recent days. Because of this, my forecast leans heavily on the GFS model until I see evidence, which makes me change my thinking. This could mean temperatures falling rapidly through the day on Friday. After a freezing start on Saturday, highs could struggle to reach 40 degrees Saturday afternoon. Saturday night and Sunday morning is when the GFS model shows the coldest air arriving, dipping temperatures down into the teens!!! This time period is just out of our 7-day forecast range, so we'll have to worry about that tomorrow and Monday. This is STILL a 6-8 day forecast, which means you can expect changes to this forecast through the week ahead. I don't believe anything is off the table for the Friday through Sunday time period from winter precipitation to pipe-busting cold to slightly-cooler temperatures (If the European model verifies). Stay tuned!