Tropical Storm Fred Moving Towards the Eastern Gulf

Tropical Storm Fred officially formed late Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean Sea and will be moving over the island of Hispaniola this morning. Currently, Fred has wind speeds at 45 mph as it moves WNW at 16 mph. There is a threat for the system to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center forecast cone shows a path over the Caribbean Islands over the next few days. This interaction with land should weaken the system before emerging into the southeastern Gulf this weekend. Similar to Hurricane Elsa, the path will turn more northerly after Cuba, which increases the impacts for Florida as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Reorganization and strengthening is expected to be limited but a strong tropical storm to a weak hurricane could make landfall across the panhandle of Florida on Monday.

Tropical models are in good agreement on the path and future intensity of Tropical Storm Fred. Most models are clustered across the eastern Gulf of Mexico keeping impacts from the system well east of Acadiana.

The GFS model has been excellent with tropical systems so far this year. This morning's model run shows the future Fred making landfall across the panhandle of Florida on Monday, August 16th.

There is still some uncertainty with the forecast at this time but impacts for Acadiana are looking slim. This forecast could change for the worse if models shift west but we're not expecting that at this time. Stay tuned and download the KLFY Storm Team Weather App.