Caribbean Tropical Disturbance Could Pose Threat to Gulf Next Week

Tropical activity has ramped up significantly in the past few days as the National Hurricane Center is monitoring several areas in the Atlantic Basin. Our full attention will be on the tropical wave that will move into the Caribbean Sea over the next week as there is a risk that it could reach the Gulf of Mexico. Major Hurricane Fiona and Tropical Depression Eight will stay in the Atlantic and not pose a threat to the United States. Tropical Depression Eight is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Gaston soon. The next names on the list are Gaston and Hermine, pronounced her-MEEN.

A tropical wave east of the Caribbean Sea is already showing signs of organization as shower and thunderstorm activity increase across the area of concern. The NHC believes that a tropical depression is likely to form in the next few days as this disturbance continues to move westward. Environmental conditions in the Caribbean Sea will be conducive for tropical development and organization. More than likely, this area will become Tropical Storm Hermine.

Long-range models are showcasing a stronger tropical system reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. NO Model shows a threat to Louisiana at this time but forecast uncertainty will remain high until an actual system forms. A cold front is expected to move through Acadiana early next week and this front may play a pivotal role in steering a tropical system away from Louisiana and more towards Florida.

Although it's been a quiet hurricane season in the Gulf, tropical systems can still form and pose a threat into October.

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